NAIROBI, Kenya (AP) — The impact of the calamitous rains The crisis that hit East Africa between March and May was intensified by a combination of climate change and rapid growth of urban areas, an international team of climate scientists said in a study published Friday.
The findings come from World Weather Attribution, a group of scientists analyzing whether and to what extent human-induced climate change has altered the probability and magnitude of extreme weather events.
The rains caused floods that killed hundreds of people, displaced thousands of others, killed thousands of animals and destroyed thousands of hectares of crops.
To assess how human-caused weather may have affected flooding, researchers analyzed meteorological data and climate model simulations to compare how these types of events changed between the current climate and the colder pre-industrial climate. They focused on regions where the impacts were most severe, including southern Kenya, most of Tanzania and part of Burundi.
It concluded that climate change has made devastating rains twice as likely and 5% more intense. The study also found that with further warming, the frequency and intensity of rainfall would continue to increase.
“We are likely to see this type of intense rainfall happening this season and in the future,” said Joyce Kimutai, research associate at Imperial College London and lead author of the study.
The study also concluded that the rapid urbanization of East African cities is increasing the risk of flooding.
Highly populated urban areas, especially high-density informal settlements, were significantly impacted by the rains. Torrential rains flooded homes and roads, exposing in some places weaknesses in urban planning to meet the demands of rapidly growing populations.
March to May is the “long rains” season in East Africa. This is when most of the region’s average annual precipitation occurs and is typically characterized by torrential rain.
East Africa also suffered floods during the “short rains” from October to December 2023 and before that, it endured a three year drought. WWA scientists found that both events were worsened by climate change.
Philip Omondi, a climate change expert at IGAD’s Center for Climate Prediction and Applications in Nairobi who was not involved in the study, said human-caused impacts result in intense, high-frequency extreme floods and droughts.
Shaun Ferris, senior technical advisor for agriculture and climate change at Catholic Relief Services in Nairobi, said the more intense weather is putting a new level of pressure on old, unplanned buildings and basic infrastructure and there is a need to build new infrastructure. that are better able to deal with climate change.
“There is enormous pressure on basic services,” he said, giving the example of Nairobi, whose population has doubled in the last 20 years.
Ferris said the global community needs to start using the loss and damage fund for climate disasters so they can repair and improve their basic infrastructure.
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