BENGALURU, India (AP) — Every year, from June to September, a heavy band of rain arrives from from India southwest coast to its northeastern borders, quenching farmers’ thirsty fields.
India’s monsoon season is arguably the most important climate phenomenon for the country, and a good monsoon can noticeably boost the country’s economy and the livelihoods of its 120 million farmers. But caused by man of Climate Change It is making rainfall more irregular, making it difficult for farmers to plant, cultivate and harvest their rainfed fields.
“Either it rains a lot in a short period of time or it doesn’t rain at all,” said Vijay Jawandhia, a 77-year-old farmer from western Maharashtra state. Jawandhia grows cotton, soybeans and several other crops that require relatively cool weather and constant irrigation during the first few weeks after sowing. “We planted our cotton seeds after a good monsoon was forecast, but it only rained for two days and then stopped, so now we are worried that our crops might fail again.”
The Indian Meteorological Department predicted good rains from monsoon clouds earlier this year, but extreme heat in north India stopped the progress of the rain. The agency revised its forecasts in June, saying this year’s rainfall will be lower than previously expected.
Many are looking for ways to adapt to this new and unpredictable reality. Experts suggest growing crops that require less water, better and more localized forecasting methods, and protection against unexpected weather conditions. But changing centuries-old ways of caring for the land will not be an easy task.
How is climate change affecting monsoons?
India typically has two monsoons: one from June to September, moving from southwest to northeast, and another from October to December, moving in the opposite direction.
But with more planet-warming gases in the air, rain now only loosely follows this pattern. This is because the warmer air can trap more moisture from the Indian Ocean, and the rain is dumped all at once. This means that the monsoons are punctuated by intense floods and dry spells rather than continuous rain.
“When it rains now, it rains a lot,” said Madhavan Rajeevan, a retired senior official from India’s Ministry of Earth Sciences. Rajeevan has been tracking the monsoons for decades and has noticed that “the number of rainy days is decreasing, although the total amount of seasonal rainfall has remained the same over the last century.”
Landslides and floods are increasing, he said, along with high temperatures and longer periods of drought that are adding to farmers’ problems.
Floods can also result in deaths and economic lossessuch as the hundreds of deaths and more than $1.42 billion in damages in Himachal Pradesh in 2023 due to heavy monsoon rains.
Rajeevan added that hydropower resources that generate large amounts of electricity are also built with sustained rainfall in mind, and extreme rainfall and flooding can lead to health problems such as increased cases of typhoid, cholera and malaria.
What does this mean for farmers?
Irregular rain is a significant blow to their livelihoods.
Maharashtra witnessed thousands of farmers dying by suicide which many say is a result of agriculture-related debt. “Our region has become famous for this,” said Jawandhia, the farmer.
Farmers in traditionally resource-rich regions such as Punjab and Haryana in northern India also say they are negatively affected by both fewer rainy days and excess rainfall when it does rain.
Tezveer Singh, a farmer from Ambala town in Haryana, remembers how “entire towns and fields were flooded, hundreds of cattle died from drowning and three people lost their lives” in last year’s floods.
Singh grows rice, potatoes and sugarcane on his 20-acre farm and said urgent policy changes are needed to stop flood damage.
He suggested that authorities can “compensate for our losses when necessary, provide climate-resilient seeds, make agricultural supply chains more efficient, and raise minimum crop prices.”
“The climate has become difficult and we need to adapt,” he said.
How can they adapt?
India’s meteorological agency makes state-wise forecasts of monsoon rains for the entire country, but climate experts say the forecasts need to be more localized to be useful to farmers.
Vishwas Chitale, who leads the climate resilience team at the New Delhi-based Energy, Environment and Water Council, said making localized weather forecasts and changing the times of year at which farmers plant their crops can help.
In many places in India, “maximum rainfall now occurs in October and not in June and July as it used to,” said Chitale, who also co-authored a 2024 report analyzing changes in India’s monsoon patterns. Crops that are waiting to be harvested are damaged.”
He added that it is important that better forecasts are available to everyone who needs them across the country.
Some farmers are already adapting to a warmer world. In the southern state of Kerala, an organic farming collective has begun altering the way they sow and harvest plants according to changes in rainfall patterns. The agricultural collective has also created an agricultural calendar that takes climate change into account and shares it with other local farmers.
“Preparation helps farmers,” said Rajesh Krishnan, a rice farmer who is part of the collective that worked with local meteorological authorities on forecasts. Krishnan said his daily and weekly forecasts are at least 70% accurate. “This is helping to reduce losses and also get a better harvest. Forecasts are also helping us decide when to harvest our crops,” he said.
Climate experts like Rajeevan said the collective’s model needs to be replicated across the country to allow farmers to work with changes in the monsoon.
After all, he said, “monsoons are part of our culture. We cannot think of India without monsoons.”
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