The rich petrostates of the Persian Gulf have big plans for the future, hoping to attract more and more tourists and investors, host prominent sporting events, build new cities and diversify their economies away from oil.
But they face an imminent threat that they cannot easily escape: the extreme and sometimes deadly heat that ravages their countries every summer, and which climate change is expected to worsen in the coming decades.
Sweltering temperatures increase energy demand, strain infrastructure, endanger workers and make even simple outdoor activities not only unpleasant but potentially dangerous. All of this will impose a significant long-term tax on the Gulf countries’ vast ambitions, experts say.
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“We keep thinking that we want to grow bigger and bigger, but we don’t think about the implications of climate change in the future,” said Aisha Al-Sarihi, an Omani researcher at the Middle East Institute at the National University of Singapore. . “If we continue to expand more and more, it means we will need more energy, more water and more electricity, especially for refrigeration. But there are limits, and we see those limits today.”
The threat of extreme heat became clear this week when Saudi Arabia announced that more than 1,300 people had died during the annual hajj pilgrimage in Mecca, including at least 11 Americans. Saudi officials said most of those who died made the journey without permits that would have given them access to thermal protections, leaving them vulnerable to temperatures that sometimes exceeded 120 degrees.
The deaths have raised questions about Saudi Arabia’s handling of the event, which drew more than 1.8 million Muslims to the holy city of Mecca.
The kingdom and other Gulf countries are investing huge amounts of their oil wealth in efforts to boost their economies and climb the list of popular global destinations.
Saudi Arabia is building high-end resorts on the Red Sea coast and a futuristic city known as Neom in the northwestern desert. Qatar hosted the men’s soccer World Cup last year and has brought other international sporting events and trade fairs. The UAE hosted a flashy World Expo and its business-friendly policies helped it become a playground for the hyper-rich.
But these countries face significant environmental challenges.
Everyone has long had extremely hot summers, but scientists say climate change has already made the season longer and hotter – a trend that is expected to accelerate in the coming decades. Some projections warn of heat waves lasting weeks, with temperatures of up to 132 degrees during the second half of this century. Such high temperatures can endanger human life.
Gulf countries, including Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman and Qatar, are among the most water-stressed in the world, meaning available water can barely meet demand. This requires them to import water or remove salt from seawater, an expensive and energy-intensive process.
Many Gulf countries have announced environmental initiatives aimed at reducing carbon emissions, making big cities greener and developing climate-friendly technologies. They have also invested heavily in efforts to mitigate the dangers of extreme heat – often with measures that other Middle Eastern countries facing high temperatures, such as Egypt, Yemen and Iraq, cannot afford.
But money is not always enough.
This month, sudden power cuts hit parts of Kuwait, a major oil exporter. In some areas, traffic lights went out and people were trapped in elevators as the temperature rose to 125 degrees.
Authorities blamed the surge in energy demand that overwhelmed power plants. To reduce the load, the government imposed rolling blackouts during the hottest hours of the day, forcing people to look for alternative air-conditioned spaces.
Summer heat drastically restricts life in Kuwait, altering the way people work and sleep and keeping those who can afford it in air-conditioned environments.
Fatima Al Sarraf, a family doctor in Kuwait City, said she went for long runs in the winter but was forced to run on an indoor treadmill or go to the shopping mall in the summer to get her daily steps in.
“I don’t go out at all,” said Al Sarraf, 27.
She fears for the future.
“If the temperature continues to rise, especially in the summer periods, Kuwait is expected to become uninhabitable,” she said. “This change will certainly affect future generations.”
Other countries appear to be managing the heat better, although they still face challenges.
Qatar has used the wealth generated by its status as one of the world’s largest exporters of liquefied natural gas to cool outdoor areas, even during the hottest hours of the day. Stadiums built for the 2023 World Cup were equipped with external air conditioning so they could be used year-round. A municipal park in the capital, Doha, features an air-conditioned running track, and an outdoor refrigeration system was recently opened at a popular open-air market.
“There is a cooling ecosystem,” said Neeshad Shafi, a non-resident researcher at the Middle East Institute based in Qatar. “Everything has to be cooled. More refrigerated parks, more refrigerated gardens, more refrigerated shopping areas, more refrigerated souks appear every day.”
But these technologies are expensive – and even more so to be implemented over large areas.
“It is not possible to cool everything in a country,” Shafi said.
The protections afforded by these technologies are also not routinely available to the most vulnerable, including the millions of migrant workers who do everything from construction work to gardening in the Gulf. Many have no choice but to work outdoors, and studies show that working in extreme heat increases accidents and can cause harm to the body.
To protect outdoor workers, Qatar and other Gulf states have imposed bans on most outdoor work during the hottest stretches of summer days. This year, Kuwait extended those protections to delivery motorcyclists, who burned inside their helmets on the scorching asphalt.
But nighttime temperatures are also sweltering, and as their countries get hotter, governments may have to extend work bans or take new measures.
“These countries are evolving rapidly, but the temperature is evolving faster than them,” said Shafi.
Rising temperatures could also harm Saudi Arabia’s dramatic development plans. Will tourists flock to new luxury resorts when it’s too hot to swim comfortably in the Red Sea? Will enough people want to move to the capital, Riyadh, to double its population, when daytime temperatures already regularly exceed 100 degrees for much of the year?
And as the kingdom heats up, keeping the hajj safe will become even more difficult.
The pilgrimage and associated rituals involve spending many hours outdoors and walking long distances. Because the hajj calendar is based on the lunar calendar, it gradually moves backwards throughout the year and cannot be rescheduled.
The Saudi government has invested billions of dollars to protect pilgrims, providing elaborate umbrellas, mist fans and air-conditioned shelters to offer relief from the heat.
But scientists warn that temperatures will be even higher the next time the hajj takes place in summer, from the mid-2040s. A recent study warned that future pilgrims would be exposed to heat exceeding a “danger threshold.” extreme” unless “aggressive adaptation measures” were taken.
Tariq Al-Olaimy, managing director of 3BL Associates, a sustainable development consultancy in Bahrain, said he considered this year’s pilgrimage deaths “a wake-up call” because they showed both the successes of thermal protections and the risks to people without them.
“The lesson of the hajj is that if this is not a priority for the entire population, there will be fatal consequences,” he said. “But there is also the lesson that when there is adequate and adequate heat management, we cannot thrive, but survive.”
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