Vermont is flooding. Not only yesterdaytwo weeks behind and one year before then, but experts say the state could see catastrophic events like these in the near future.
Climate change is fueling stronger, more persistent storms, and the state’s infrastructure lies along the riverside villages of the Green Mountains, with steep slopes and hills that carry enormous amounts of water.
Now, these cities are the epicenter of a flooding conundrum that state and federal authorities are struggling to solve.
Meanwhile, many homeowners are still trying to rebuild from the floods of just over a year ago – considered historic at the time, but now becoming the norm.
A combination of factors leaves Vermont susceptible to these types of devastating floods. Here are a few, along with photos and videos of the latest storms.
Climate change warming the atmosphere
Extreme flooding conditions like these are often the result of random, short-term natural weather patterns, worsened by long-term human-caused climate change.
With climate change, storms are forming in a warmer atmosphere, making extreme rainfall a more frequent reality. The additional warming that scientists predict is coming will only get worsewith the Northeastern US among the regions vulnerable to heavier rainfall in the future.
A warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, which results in storms that dump more precipitation that can have deadly or destructive results. For every 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) the atmosphere warms, it retains approximately 7% more moisture.
A study published last year in the journal Climate Change found that extreme precipitation in the Northeast will increase by 52% by the end of the century. One of the study’s authors, Jonathan Winter, associate professor of geography at Dartmouth College, also participated in research that found there was a 50% increase in extreme precipitation events between 1996 and 2014.
Winter said research has found that the air’s ability to hold more water in a warmer climate is the main force behind the increase in extreme precipitation.
“This essentially gives the storms more fuel, so when you have the right conditions for an extreme precipitation event like the remnants of Hurricane Beryl, it creates a larger storm relative to what we would have experienced without climate change,” he said.
Mountainous terrain and saturated soil
Vermont has more than 7,000 miles of rivers and country roads that pass through stunning scenery and scenic ski resorts. Its residents are scattered along dirt roads that stretch for miles into the desert, many with streams flowing through their properties into larger rivers. Large mountains give way to deep valleys with rivers and streams everywhere.
Many rural communities can quickly become isolated when roads are washed out, and those who live near waterways where people settled in the factory era are at risk of flash floods that move rocks, trees and cars past their homes.
Vermont experienced four floods last year, and the combination of climate change and the state’s mountainous geography are big reasons for that, said Peter Banacos, science and operations officer at the National Weather Service in Burlington. Increased rainfall and increased moisture availability have made the state’s steep terrain more susceptible to flooding, he said.
The state’s soil has also become saturated more frequently, which creates more possibilities for flooding, Banacos said.
“As we see more frequent rainfall, often in quick succession, we have wetter or more saturated soil conditions as the next storm approaches,” Banacos said.
Heavily manipulated rivers
Vermont’s history of heavy-handed manipulation of its rivers and streams also plays a role in increased flooding, said Vermont Agency of Natural Resources Secretary Julie Moore.
The floods are “a reflection of us having reached the limits of our ability to truly manage the rivers and keep them in place,” Moore said.
Infrastructure such as roads, bridges, culverts and wastewater facilities are especially vulnerable, Moore said.
The state is in the midst of a multi-decade effort to strengthen infrastructure, with the goal of replacing or repairing structures “with our current and future climate in mind,” Moore said.
Vermont is also working to establish floodplain patterns.
A ruined dam system
Dams in Vermont are increasingly at risk as climate change brings heavier rainfall and stronger storms. Extensive flooding in the state last year led to the failure of five dams and almost 60 overtoppings. Although the deluge caused by the remnants of Hurricane Beryl was not that severe, those responsible for the dam were on high alert.
The challenge facing dams in Vermont is playing across the country as more dams overflow or fail during heavy rains. The Rapidan Dam, a 1910 hydroelectric dam in Minnesota, was seriously damaged last month by the second worst flood in its history. And in Texas, flooding damaged the spillway of the Lake Livingston dam, about 65 miles northeast of Houston.
There are about 90,000 significant dams in the US. At least 4,000 are in poor or unsatisfactory condition and could kill people or harm the environment if they fail, according to data from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. They they need inspections, updates and even emergency repairs.
Like the rest of New England, Vermont has mostly small, old dams built to power textile factories, store water, or provide irrigation for farms. The concern is that these dams built decades ago – when climate-driven storms dumping huge amounts of rain were not a threat – have outlived their usefulness.
