Southeast Michigan seemed like the perfect “weather paradise.”
“My family has owned my house since the 60s. … Even when my father was a child and lived there, no floods, no floods, no floods, no floods. Until [2021],” a southeast Michigan resident told us. That June, a storm dumped more than 6 inches of rain in the region, overloading stormwater systems and flooding homes.
This feeling of living through unexpected and unprecedented disasters resonates with more Americans every year, we found in our research into the past, present and future of risk and resilience.
An analysis of federal disaster declarations for weather-related events puts more data behind the fears – the average number of disaster declarations has skyrocketed since 2000 to almost twice of the previous 20-year period.
As people question how habitable the world will be in a warm futurea narrative around climate migration It is “climatic paradises” emerged.
These “climatic paradises” are areas praised by researchers, public workers It is urban planners as natural refuges against extreme weather conditions. Some climatic paradises are already welcoming people escaping the effects of climate change elsewhere. Many have affordable housing It is legacy infrastructure of their largest populations before the mid-20th century, when people started leaving as industries disappeared.
But they are not disaster-proof – nor are they necessarily prepared for climate change.
Six climate paradises
Some of “refuges” most cited in research per national organizations is at media are older cities in the Great Lakes region, upper Midwest and Northeast. They include Ann Arbor, Michigan; Duluth, Minnesota; Minneapolis; Buffalo, new York; burlington, Vermont; and Madison, Wisconsin.
However, each these cities will probably have to face some of the greater temperature increases in the country in the coming years. Warmer air also has a greater capacity to retain water vapor, causing more frequent, intense and longer-lasting storms.
These cities are already feeling the impacts of climate change. Only in 2023, the “refuge” regions in Wisconsin, Vermont It is Michigan suffered significant damage due to powerful storms and floods.
The previous winter was also catastrophic: lake-effect snow fed by moisture from the still-open waters of Lake Erie dumped more than five feet of snow on the Buffaloalmost leaving 50 people dead and thousands of families without power or heating. Duluth achieved near-record snowfall and faced significant flooding exceptionally high temperatures caused rapid snowmelt in April.
Heavy and extreme rainfall winter storms can cause widespread damage to the energy network and significant flooding and increase the risk of waterborne disease outbreaks. These effects are particularly notable in Great Lakes legacy cities with aging energy It is water infrastructure.
Older infrastructure wasn’t built for this
Older cities tend to have older infrastructure that was likely not built to withstand more extreme weather events. They are now fighting to shore their systems.
Many cities are investing in infrastructure improvements, but these updates tend to be piecemealthey are are not permanent fixes and often lack long-term financing. Typically, they also are not wide enough protect entire cities from the effects of climate change and can exacerbate existing vulnerabilities.
Power grids are extremely vulnerable to the increasing effects of severe thunderstorms and winter storms in power lines. Vermont and Michigan are ranked 45th and 46th among states, respectively, in electricity reliabilitywhich incorporates the frequency of outages and the time it takes utilities to restore power.
Stormwater systems in the Great Lakes region also regularly can’t keep up with heavy rains and rapid melting of snow caused by climate change. Stormwater systems are routinely designed according to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration precipitation analyses, called Atlas 14which do not take climate change into account. A new version it won’t be available until 2026 at the earliest.
At the confluence of these infrastructure challenges lies most frequently It is extensive urban inundation in and around paradise cities. An analysis of the First Street Foundationwhich incorporates future climate projections into precipitation modeling, reveals that five of these six paradise cities face moderate or severe flood risk.
Disaster declaration data shows that the counties housing these six cities have recorded an average of six severe storm and flood declarations since 2000, about one every 3.9 years, and these are increasing.
Intensified precipitation could further strain stormwater infrastructure, resulting in flood in the basement, Contamination in drinking water sources in cities with legacy sewer systemsIt is dangerous road It is highway floods. Transport systems they are also fighting warmer temperatures and pavement not designed for extreme heat.
As these trends grow, cities around the world will also need to pay attention systemic inequalities in vulnerability which often fit into criteria of race, wealth and mobility. Urban heat island effects, energy insecurity It is increased risk of flooding are just some of the problems intensified by climate change which tend to hit poor residents hardest.
What can cities do to prepare?
So what should a city of refuge do in the face of urgent climate change and population influx?
Decision-makers can hope for the best, but they must plan for the worst. This means working to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions that are driving climate change, but also assessing the community’s physical infrastructure It is social safety nets for vulnerabilities that become more likely in a hot climate.
Collaboration across sectors is also essential. For example, a community may have the same water resources for energy, drinking water and recreation. Climate change could affect all three. Working across sectors and including community input into planning for climate change can help highlight concerns early.
There are several innovative ways in which cities can finance infrastructure projects, such as Public-Private Partnerships It is green banks that help support sustainability projects. Banco Verde DC in Washington, D.C., for example, works with private companies to mobilize financing for natural stormwater management and energy efficiency projects.
Cities will need to remain vigilant about reducing emissions that contribute to climate change while at the same time preparing for climate risks that loom even in the globe’s “climate paradises.”
This article was republished from The conversation, an independent, nonprofit news organization that brings you trusted facts and analysis to help you understand our complex world. It was written by: Julie Arbit, University of Michigan; Brad Bottoms, University of MichiganIt is Count Lewis, University of Michigan
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Earl Lewis is affiliated with the 2U Board of Directors; ETS Board of Trustees; Board of Directors of American Funds/Capital Group; Board of Trustees of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences
Brad Bottoms and Julie Arbit do not work for, consult with, own shares in, or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
