Senior Conservatives are predicting they will lose the Blackpool South by-election as counting begins.
Sources told Sky News political correspondent Tamara Cohen that they “did not expect to hold” the seat – which they won with a majority of 3,690 in 2019.
And they said that “the stars could not be more aligned against us” after the scandals that hit local MPs.
Watch live: Conservatives prepare for a potentially difficult night in local elections
The by-election was called after former Conservative MP Scott Benton was caught in a sting by the Times newspaper, suggesting he was willing to break lobbying rules for money.
As a result, he was suspended from the House of Commons for 35 days, meaning he was subject to a recall petition in his constituency.
But rather than face removal from office, Benton resigned from parliament, triggering a vote for a new MP.
In a further painful twist for the Tories, the candidate who would replace him, David Jones, was revealed as the chairman of the Fylde Tories – the area represented by the latest scandal to hit MP Mark Menzies.
Menzies made headlines after claims he misused campaign funds – including calling a local association member to say he had been locked in a flat by “bad people” and needed £5,000 as a matter of “life and death”.
Jones denied knowing anything about the incident – which was reportedly reported to the Conservative Party three months ago – until it was revealed in the media.
Photo: Reuters
Labor sources told Sky News they were confident of a win in Blackpool South, despite it being a seat held by the Conservatives for 57 of its 78 years of existence.
However, the Labor Party held the constituency between 1997 and 2019 – before Boris Johnson and the Conservatives won several so-called Red Wall seats in the north of England.
In the by-election, Labor claimed that its campaigners on the doorstep reported large numbers of former Conservative voters saying they would vote Labor for the first time.
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The partial election takes place at the same time as a series of votes from the local council, the mayor and the police and crime commissioner throughout England and Wales.
Conservative sources told Tamara Cohen they expected to lose more than 500 seats, which would be a huge blow to the party ahead of the general election.
But Labor sources said the figure would be much lower – despite the party overtaking the Conservatives in national polls.
Speaking to Sky News on Thursday night, Labor Party chair Anneliese Dodds declined to define how many council seats would be a good outcome for her, saying: “I think the main thing will be to see if the Labor Party is moving . moving forward in the areas where it is really critical that we build support before the next general election.”
Follow our live coverage of the election results from midnight – find all the details here.
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