We enter this set of local and mayoral elections with two big questions: is the Labor Party on track to win a majority and how bad will it be for Rishi Sunak?
As for the Sunak issue, it is a very clear story.
Conservatives are having a night as bad as their worst nightmare.
There is a 19 point drop in the Conservative vote compared to the 2019 general election – one of their worst performances ever.
But it’s not a complete victory for the Labor Party either.
As stated in these results, the party is not on track to obtain an absolute majority in the general electionsaccording to our election expert, Professor Michael Thrasher.
The projected National Equivalent Vote (NEV) share – the model we use to translate local council elections into a nationwide vote share – puts the Labor Party at 35%, below the 40%-plus territory that some consider it necessary to catapult Sir Keir Starmer to No. 10 and a far cry from what Blair was achieving in the 1995 and 1996 local elections before his huge landslide victory.
If we are to compare with Blair’s performance in the run-up to 1997, in the 1995 local elections the Labor Party achieved an NEV of 47%, whilst in 1996 the party achieved an NEV of 43%.
So what might this mean for maths in the House of Commons?
The Conservative majority is eliminated – with Sunak projected to get a 25% vote share – and the Labor Party becomes the largest party in parliament, but 32 seats short of an absolute majority.
This would give them a gain of 93 seats to 294, with the Conservatives losing 130 seats to end up on 242.
The Liberal Democrats would add 30 seats to have 38 MPs, with others going up seven to 66.
This raises questions for the Labor Party.
While the country is clear in these results that the government is the problem, they seem less convinced that Keir Starmer is the answer.
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Of the 260 seats lost by the Conservatives in the council elections starting at 5pm on Friday, Labor won less than half as the vote goes to independent and smaller parties.
Labor will argue two things: that they are winning in the key battlegrounds across the country that they need to win the general election, while voters are likely to turn out in greater numbers and vote for the main parties when it comes to selecting MPs rather than councilors.
Labor Party members tell me it is “wrong” to say they are not on track to win the general election.
“We are delighted with the efficiency of voting in every corner of the country, from Hartlepool to Thurrock, from Avon and Somerset to Redditch, millions of people sent a message so loud and clear that even the Prime Minister on his private jet must have heard,” said an important figure.
“Labour is on track to win a majority. We are very happy with where we are. Others and independents will not get 24% in the general election.
“Voter distribution is where we need to be. In places like the Tees Valley, we have a huge fluctuation.
“Where do you think all those minors and independents will go in a general election where there is only the choice of two parties?
“A nine percent lead is more than enough to get a majority and we are winning the seats we need to get a majority.”
And there are some signs of a direct transfer of seats from the Conservatives to Labor in key constituencies.
Rushmore, a council Blair has never won and has been Conservative for 51 years, has changed.
Redditch in the West Midlands was a direct switch to Labour.
In Swindon, another general election bellwether, Labor extended its lead.
“It’s not just the Conservatives who lose, it’s us who win Rushmore, Redditch. Whoever wins Redditch wins the country, Thurrock, Hartlepool,” the senior figure added.
“So we are winning in every seat type, the Red Wall and the Blue Wall.
“Take the case of Rushmore. The position of a changed Labor Party is appearing. It is very satisfying that in a general election year, when the Conservatives are trying to use national security as a dividing line, they lose the home of the British Army. “
For conservatives, it’s a horror show – plain and simple. In Welling and Hatfield, Portsmouth and Peterborough, they are reaching all-time lows, surpassing records set in 1996, when Blair was Labor leader and on the verge of a landslide victory.
But despite all the good news for the Labor Party, this is by no means a dive into the slums.
Because, in a nutshell, although the Conservatives are hemorrhaging every seat, the Labor Party is not always their main beneficiary, as independents and smaller parties thrive on Tory decline.
So let’s take the Peterborough nightmare for the Tories – Labor performed well, but it was the independents who won the most seats.
Harlow is the same, with the party unable to unseat the Conservatives in a council they lost in 2021. The Conservatives lost 11 seats, but seven of them went independent rather than to Labour.
Workers are also struggling in some areas as tensions over the war between Israel and Hamas play out at the polls.
With the solid Labor vote in Blackburn with Darwen, Labor lost several seats to independents in Muslim-majority districts, with Labour’s vote share in the council falling by more than 20 points.
In the Muslim Elswick area of Newcastle, Labour’s vote share plummeted and this time the Greens won.
Greens co-leader Carla Denyer told Sky News the victory was predominantly because of Gaza.
The Greens are also taking seats from the Conservatives.
The Lib Dems are so far underwhelming after a rising performance last year, and could improve when results from the South West and South East start to come in.
There are still many results to go, but what is clear from the counts so far is that Sunak’s Conservatives are in John Major territory in these last big tests at the polls before the general election.
But what is less clear is whether Sir Keir Starmer is riding the kind of New Labor wave that saw Blair storm Downing Street with a landslide victory in 1997.
This story originally appeared on News.sky.com read the full story
