Sunak bet on the election date knowing that success by any definition is difficult | Politics News

Rishi Sunak has calculated that 4th July is, if not the best date for an election for the Conservatives, then – as far as he can see – the least worst.

Firstly, he thinks there is a story to tell about the economy – albeit one that is not without dangers.

Britain has emerged from recession, while inflation today is statistically within “normal” levels.

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Secondly, a plane is likely to take off for Rwanda during the election campaign. While this is considered a success, it avoids judgment on the true purpose of the policy – ​​to stop the boats.

Thirdly, I understand that it was no longer possible to have a budget or a new tax statement after the big promise to increase military spending to 2.5% by 2030.

A conservative source told me that the moment they saw this they knew there would be no more tax cuts and that the election would happen sooner or later.

But more than that, there was a real – perhaps existential – question about how long Sunak could continue to hold it together.

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There are imminent riots in Parliament – over abortion, smoking and the reduction of prison sentences. This potentially avoids some of them.

He was also facing questions about whether he would have to reshuffle after Chris Heaton Harris, the Northern Ireland secretary, announced his departure at the next election. A precedent that should have provoked a reshuffle – perhaps this prevented it.

There are also allegations – which may never be proven one way or another – that more and more Tories wanted him gone and that he could be tiptoeing closer to a vote of no confidence. Only Sir Graham Brady can know the truth of this.

All of that is now in the past. Sunak gambled, knowing that success by any definition is difficult.