Labor could be on track for a historic landslide victory, with the party expected to win a 194-seat majority, a YouGov poll shows.
It would be the most seats by any party in any election since Stanley Baldwin won a majority of 208 in 1924.
Sky News has partnered with YouGov for the campaign and today we publish the first of their three poll projections, known as MRPs, which suggest the UK is on the brink of a major reshaping of the political landscape.
The projection shows a historic landslide victory for the Labor Party, greater than that achieved by Tony Blair in 1997.
It also projects an elimination of the Conservatives in large parts of the country, a rise of the Liberal Democrats and the Scottish National Party would lose more than half its seats in Scotland if elections were held now.
The poll shows the Labor Party with 422 seats, an increase of 222 compared to the 2019 results based on the new electoral boundaries. This is the highest number of Labor seats on record and a much larger majority than anything since the Second World War.
A majority of 194 for Starmer would surpass Blair’s overwhelming 1997 majority of 179 and Margaret Thatcher’s 144 in 1983.
The Conservatives would fall to 140 seats, a drop from 232 – while facing destruction in London, the North East, the North West and Wales. This is the lowest figure since 1906, when they won 131 seats. This means the party retreats predominantly to the South East, South West and East Anglia.
This projection gives the Conservatives significantly fewer seats than the previous lowest number of Conservative seats in post-war British history: 165 in 1997.
The Liberal Democrats would gain 48 seats according to this projection, an increase of 40 from 2019, quadrupling their seats and far more than Liberal Democrat polls predicted last year. This would mean that Ed Davey’s party would not break records, but would take them back to previous levels of success under Lord Ashdown, which won 46 seats in 1997 and 62 under Charles Kennedy.
The SNP would win 17 out of 57 seats in Scotland in this projection and lose 31 seats in the 2019 notional results. This is the nationalist party’s lowest score this decade and well below the peak of 56 out of 59 seats in 2015.
The YouGov poll projection is based on interviews with 53,334 people in England and Wales and 5,541 in Scotland, with data collected between May 24 and June 1.
This projection, which models how each individual electorate would vote, implies the following vote shares: Con 24.5%, Lab 42.9%, Lib Dem 10.6%, Reform 10.1%, Green 6.7%, SNP 2.8%, Chess 0.7%, Other 1.7%.
The scale of the defeat under this projection means that many of the Conservatives’ biggest cabinet figures are now under threat in this campaign.
Jeremy Hunt, the Chancellor, Grant Shapps, the Defense Secretary, Penny Mordaunt, the Leader of the Commons, Victoria Prentis, the Attorney General, Alex Chalk, the Justice Secretary, David Davies, the Welsh Secretary and Johnny Mercer, the Minister of the Armed Forces in the cabinet are all in danger of losing their seats under this projection.
Twelve of the 26 cabinet members running for re-election are at risk in total.
Furthermore, the futures of Steve Baker, minister for the Cabinet Office, and Bim Afolami, economic secretary to the Treasury, and Lee Rowley, minister for housing, planning and building safety, are all at stake, the projection suggests.
Twenty-two of the 45 confirmed government ministers are at risk.
A Labor Party shadow cabinet member is also at risk under this projection. Shadow culture secretary Thangham Debonnaire is fighting the Greens in her Bristol Central seat: YouGov says this seat is up for grabs.
This story originally appeared on News.sky.com read the full story
