2024 is known as the year of elections because in these 12 months more voters in more countries than ever will exercise their right to vote to choose who governs them.
This is the march of democracy – even if no one was convinced when President Putin was elected, againin Russia.
The UK is in the middle of a general elections campaign that could put an end to 14 years of Conservative government. Americans will decide whether Donald Trump returns to the White House in November.
In India, a victorious prime minister Narendra Modi is licking his wounds after his Hindu nationalist BJP underperformed in the biggest election in the world.
Right now, the second biggest elections in the world are taking place; this weekend and just above the seas surrounding Britain.
It has attracted little attention here, although the UK participated in it until 2019. Although previous elections of this type have held Nigel Farage live as a political force. And even though its outcome could have more direct consequences for the United Kingdom, at least in the short term.
This election is also part of a unique experience. Voters in many countries elect members of the only functioning transnational parliament in the world, in which MEPs from different countries meet in blocs according to their political ideologies.
Since Thursday, almost 400 million citizens in the 27 Member States of the European Union have had the opportunity to elect a total of 750 members to the European Parliament (FOOT).
Fittingly, EP elections began on the 80th anniversary of D-Day, 6 June, in the Netherlands, with Ireland voting on Friday, and most other Member States over the weekend, including Belgium, which also holds national elections on Sunday.
This seems appropriate because parliament was designed to be a peaceful unifier of democratic Europe. It’s ironic because some of the parties expected to do well this year have links going back to Franco, Mussolini and Hitler.
From Wednesday: “Extreme right breaking the entire European right”
Parliament is the only directly elected EU institution. It is less powerful than most national parliaments. EU policy is directed by the Council of Ministers, who are the elected leaders of each Member State. Plans are implemented by the Commission, a designated bureaucracy.
Parliament debates, amends and transforms proposals into law, as well as oversees the Commission’s budget, actions and appointments of the current president Ursula von der Leyen.
Many politicians move between the EP and their national parliaments. Whether candidates are candidates or not, the results of these elections often have a major impact on what happens in their home countries.
For example, during Britain’s membership of the EU, Nigel Farage failed seven times in his attempt to win the first elections to become an MP at Westminster.
However, thanks to proportional representation, he continuously served as an MEP for South East England from June 1999 to January 2020, when the United Kingdom left the EU as a result of the Brexit referendum. He took full advantage of the salary and expenses made available to him by the EP.
Despite never having been an MP, Nigel Farage served as an MEP from 1999 to 2019. Photo: AP
Farage has the distinction of having led two different British parties to victory in the EP elections – with very serious consequences.
In 2014, UKIP defeated Labor and the Conservativesleaving David Cameron, the then Conservative leader, in a panic, leading him to hold the EU referendum.
Five years later, in 2019, when the United Kingdom had not yet completed its exit from the EU, Farage led the so-called the Brexit Party comes first in the EP elections. The Conservatives came in fifth place. Theresa May fell and Boris Johnson became prime minister with his slogan “get Brexit done”.
The UK is no longer part of the EU. We have our own general elections to choose MPs, not MEPs. Farage’s latest party, Reform UK, is standing in the general election.
In the rest of Europe, the radical right is on the rise. There is talk of Europe’s “Donald Trump moment” amid cost of living concerns.
According to opinion polls, populist parties are expected to make gains. If they do, the shake-up between rival blocs on the right will impact issues such as the war in Ukraine, mass migration, climate change and trade.
All the issues on which whoever wins the UK election will be hoping for greater co-operation with its European neighbours.
Giorgia Meloni, Prime Minister of Italy and leader of Fratelli di Italia, at a rally for the European Parliament elections. Photo: AP
The results of the EP elections in France, Germany It is Italy will greatly influence the direction in which the domestic politics of the United Kingdom’s main allies will develop.
The dispute can also be seen as a battle for the soul of Europopulism – pro-Russia or pro-NATO – between their two rival queens: Marina LePen of the French National Rally (NR), formerly the National Front, and Giorgia MeloniPrime Minister of Italy and leader of Fratelli di Italia (FdI).
In Germany, the far right Alternative für Deutschland (AFD) is on track to come second, ahead of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats.
The NR, led in the EP by the charismatic Jordan Bardella, is expected to obtain 33% of the votes in France, much more than President Emmanuel Macron’s party. And Le Pen is already the most popular candidate ahead of the 2027 presidential elections – when Macron is expected to step down.
Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella at a national rally event ahead of the European Parliament elections. Photo: AP
Radical right-wing parties are already in power or supporting governments in eight EU countries and are expected to return in the Austrian elections scheduled for this month.
In total, populist parties could end up with more MEPs than the center-right European People’s Party (EPP), which has long dominated parliament, and the struggling Socialists and Democrats.
But it is unclear whether the warring right-wing factions will come together to act together or work with the dominant EPP, made up of mainstream conservative and Christian Democratic parties.
They have in common ethnic nationalism, anti-wokeism, Islamophobia, hostility to migrants and net-zero emissions, and suspicion of climate change and multilateral institutions, including the EU, the UN and NATO. They differ on the economy – free markets and state intervention – and, above all, on Russia.
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Giorgia Meloni’s FdI, Poland’s Law and Justice party and other European conservative and reformist groups are giving strong support to the Ukraine.
But the Identity and Freedom group, dominated by Le Pen’s FR, supports a deal that would hand over territory to Russia, while the AfD, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Austria’s Freedom Party openly belong to the put on fan club.
The radical right will only be able to exert its full influence in parliament if Meloni and Le Pen can reach an agreement on issues such as Ukraine or if von der Leyen is given a second term as Commission president.
The European Parliament will decide whether Ursula von der Leyen remains President of the Commission. Photo: AP
This seems unlikely, but it hasn’t stopped von der Leyen from scouring the EU for support and making it clear that Europe will give green policies less priority in the next parliament than in the current one.
The largest EP group recommends who should be the President of the Commission. In practice, national leaders on the council generally imposed their own candidate.
Growing factionalism is preventing the EP from having the influence it would like. Ten groups have official status, which gives them funding and committee status, with a further three groups unofficial.
After this election, no group may emerge that is sufficiently dominant to take a leadership role.
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The split in the EU’s main right is in part a legacy of Britain’s EU membership. The ECR only came into being when David Cameron challenged Angela Merkel and withdrew the Conservative Party from the EPP.
Whether the UK is in or out, neither the UK nor the EU is safe from the winds of radical right-wing populism.
We here may be too busy to pay much attention to the second biggest elections in the world. We will not be able to ignore its consequences.
This story originally appeared on News.sky.com read the full story
