As Rishi Sunak finished the launch of his metaphor-filled manifesto at Silverstone racecourse, the scale of the prime minister’s task in the rest of the election campaign was becoming clear.
According to exclusive Sky News-YouGov research, Sunak You need to go through the gears immediately or risk falling to the bottom step of the podium.
He was speaking hours before it emerged that voting intentions for the Conservatives have fallen to their lowest figure this parliament – 18% – now putting Sunak’s party just one point ahead of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK on 17%, tantalizingly close to an intersection.
Follow the latest updates on the general elections
A third of 2019 Conservative voters – the group that supported Boris Johnson last time – they now say they will switch to Reform UK, while the proportion who think Sunak will be a good prime minister has fallen two points – to 22% – in the last fortnight. This last figure is possibly a victim of the Prime Minister’s decision to abandon D-Day early – and it could have been worse.
The notable drop in the Labor vote – three points to 38% – will do little to cheer a Conservative party in crisis, consumed by its own existential angst. This is because the change appears to coincide with the Liberal Democrats’ jump of four points to 15%. Much of YouGov’s fieldwork was done when the Lib Dem manifesto was receiving maximum coverage.
The question is whether the launch of the conservative manifesto could have provided something new to change the situation, from as dire a position as any conservative can remember.
What is in the Conservative Party manifesto?
Sunak has bet everything on this manifesto: it is 72 pages long, with tax and spending announcements worth almost £20 billion.
There are promises designed to appease and appeal to almost every demographic group, from 2p off National Insurance for working families, to the accelerated abolition of National Insurance for the self-employed, to tax cuts for pensions to help first-time buyers and tax incentives for wealthier parents. This will have to be paid for, Sunak said, largely by yet more promises to reduce welfare, squeeze the public sector and more anti-evasion measures.
It’s a “kitchen sink” manifesto for conservatives. But it’s not the first “kitchen sink” manifesto in recent memory.
Sir Keir Starmer boldly compared Sunak’s offer with Jeremy Corbyn’s – full of policies that appear, and according to polls, popular, but which are not sustainable and affordable as a global package.
The Labor leader was, of course, demonstrating the boldness of a man who is 20 points ahead in the polls, by casually denying a manifesto that he himself defended five years ago.
However, his political aim in making this point is twofold: firstly, he is trying to further deepen the Conservatives’ claim to economic credibility, whilst also reminding people that manifestos full of popular policies do not automatically win elections.
See more information:
Who will win the elections? Check our poll tracker
Objects thrown at Farage
What are the main promises of the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats?
PM launches party manifesto
But despite having individually popular ideas, the prime minister was unable to deliver on perhaps the biggest objective Conservative MPs could have wanted – a promise to reduce the overall tax burden in the next parliament.
It’s the tax burden that hangs around the neck of a party proud of its low tax heritage, at an event where Sunak had the audacity to invoke Nigel Lawson, the chancellor of tax cuts in the 1980s.
Sunak cannot bring him down. However, he is not willing to be completely transparent on this point.
Photo: PA
Keep up with the latest news from the UK and around the world by following Sky News
Carefully examine this painful exchange in media questions afterwards, when Sunak’s sleight of hand was noticeable.
He was asked by the Daily Mail: “Can you guarantee today that if you join, overall taxes will be lower when you finish?”
To this, Sunak responded: “Because of the measures that are announced in the manifesto and which you can see in that document later, the tax burden will be around a percentage point lower each year compared to the forecast you saw in the spring budget . a few months ago, which Jeremy (Hunt, the chancellor) described.”
This answer is deliberately elliptical, because the truth is harsh: more people are being dragged into higher tax brackets by frozen thresholds designed to pay off some of the debt incurred in Covid.
Tap here to follow Politics at Jack and Sam’s wherever you get your podcasts
As my colleague Ed Conway, economics editor at Sky, says, even after the tax cuts envisaged in this manifesto, everyone will continue to pay higher taxes in 2028/29 than we pay today.
So the answer to the Daily Mail is yes – the tax burden will be higher, although not as high as previously planned.
Sunak’s response, while true, made it seem like the picture is better than it is when it comes to taxes – and is a complication for a Conservative leader trying to make taxes the main dividing line with his Labor opposition this election.
As Beth Rigby has highlighted, a recent poll shows that just one in six voters believe that Sunak will not raise his taxes, or will raise major taxes, compared with one in four in favor of the Labor Party – and she asked him if this it means he “screwed up.” “.
“I’m not afraid to do hard things,” he pleaded in response. It’s unclear whether many on his side believe this argument will reach the public at this late stage in the political cycle.
This story originally appeared on News.sky.com read the full story
