Nigel Farage has predicted the Conservatives will soon go to “war”, while a former Tory minister warned voters of an “elective Labor dictatorship” if they voted for Reform.
The UK’s reformist leader told The Sunday Telegraph that divisions in the party would only “get worse” in the run-up to election day on July 4.
Farage was speaking at a time when three polls this week painted a bleak picture for Sunak – and a positive one for his party.
A survey by Savanta for The Sunday Telegraph showed the Conservatives a drop of four points, to just 21% of the vote – the lowest figure recorded by that researcher since the last days of Theresa May’s government, at the beginning of 2019.
In a boost for Farage, the poll showed Reform UK rose three points to 13% of the vote.
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A separate Survation survey for Better for Britain, published by The Sunday Times, predicted the Conservatives would win just 72 seats in the next parliament, compared to 456 for Labour.
The result would give Labor a majority of 262 seats – far surpassing the landslide victory achieved by Labor under Tony Blair in 1997 – while the Liberal Democrats would gain 56 seats, the Reformers seven and the Greens one seat.
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Earlier this week, a YouGov poll put Reform ahead of the Conservatives for the first time – with 19% of the vote, compared to 18% for the Conservatives.
Farage, who is due to launch his reformist manifesto on Monday, told the Sunday Telegraph that “within a week, look… there will be war within the Conservative Party as there was in the run-up to ’97”. referring to the election in which the Labor Party last won a landslide victory under Blair.
He compared current divisions in the Conservative Party – particularly over migration – to divisions under former Conservative Prime Minister John Major over joining the euro.
“In the run-up to 1997, John Major said he was agnostic about joining the euro,” he told the newspaper.
“Those who wanted to join the Euro made their own manifesto and raised their own money. It was an absolutely divided and divisive joke and the same will happen in this election.
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“You’ll start to see those parliamentarians, who I agree with on most things, start to become much more vociferous about their position as opposed to the party’s. The divisions will get worse. And to them, I’ll say, ‘Sorry guys, you’re in the wrong party’.”
It turns out that former immigration minister Robert Jenrick, who is tipped as a future Conservative leader, gave an interview to the same newspaper saying that he “shares the frustrations” of traditional Conservative voters who are tempted to defect to reform – but who should remain with Sunak’s party to avoid giving Labor a landslide victory.
“I have immense sympathy for natural conservatives who feel disillusioned and attracted to the Reformation,” he said.
Robert Jenrick says he has sympathy for natural conservatives who are attracted to the Reformation
“Not only do I understand your frustrations, I share many of them.
“The tax burden is too high, the criminal justice system is too lenient and public services are too inefficient. My disagreements with the government over immigration policy meant I resigned from cabinet.”
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He added: “But ultimately a vote for Reform will just give Labor a blank check to take our country back to the 1970s.
“Electoral reform cannot be the answer. It can only bring about a government that increases taxes and immigration. Its success can only weaken the conservative movement. The right cannot unify after the elections if there is no significant force in the parliament to unite.
“Our task is to raise awareness among Conservatives across Britain of this danger. If we can do this, and make the case that just one vote for the Conservative Party can prevent a one-party calamitous state coming on 5th July, then we can avoid the disaster.”
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