There are still two and a half weeks to go.
The most used comparison of this campaign so far is about the challenge faced Sir Keir Starmer lead the Labor Party safely to victory in this general elections. Politicians and experts simply mention the “Ming vase” for short.
This is a reference to the 1997 election campaign and the last time a Labor leader had in his hands the possibility of putting an end to a long period of Conservative government.
The analogy was coined by former Labor great Roy Jenkins, who entertained a Liberal Democrat dinner by comparing Tony Blair to a curator nervously carrying a priceless, cobweb-thin Ming vase across a newly polished, treacherously slippery museum floor.
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Blair nailed it – despite almost believing it couldn’t be done.
“We usually lose” is the perennial warning of Pat McFadden, who was then Blair’s adviser and is now Starmer’s campaign chairman.
Upon examining the election results, Lord Jenkins discovered that the porcelain treasure was not to his liking. He expected a narrow victory, necessitating a progressive realignment that would bring together Labor and the Liberal Democrats.
But Labor won such a large majority that there was no need for coalition partners.
Starmer is equally delicately balanced today. Opinion polls and academic analysts suggest he could be on track for a victory at least as big as Blair’s.
The Labor leader and his closest confidants may be the last people in the political world to agree.
This is not just rejecting complacency. As he reminded his supporters in Launch of the labor manifestoonly general elections count.
Sir Keir Starmer with Angela Rayner MP at the launch of the Labor manifesto. Photo: PA
There is always the chance that a slip or blow could knock the pan over and shatter on the floor.
If Starmer achieves victory, the size of the majority, if any, will determine what type of government he will be able to establish.
The sweet victory allowed Blair to ignore or crush dissent within the labor and union ranks. In contrast, Cameron, May and Sunak all ended up hostage to factions on the warring Tory benches.
One of the striking features of this extraordinary electoral campaign is the contrast between the two sides.
The Labor Party has largely united behind Starmer and accepted the iron discipline it considers necessary to reassure voters.
“This is a serious plan,” he told his supporters at the launch of his manifesto. “It’s not about rabbits pulled out of hats, it’s not about pantomime, we’ve already had that. I am running as a candidate for prime minister, not as a candidate to run the circus.”
‘I’m running to be PM, not to run the circus’
The event in Manchester reminded me of New Labor in 1997, albeit in dark and not optimistic times. The men and women in the audience were dressed in business suits, with red highlights. And there was barely any stir when a young questioner was pelted with the leader’s rebuke: “we gave up being a protest party five years ago.”
This was when he replaced Jeremy Corbyn as party leader.
Conservative candidates are pleasing themselves
On the conservative side, it’s every man and woman for themselves.
Rishi Sunak He often cuts a helpless figure during the campaign, rarely accompanied by other important figures or among large crowds. Candidates are ingratiating themselves, distributing leaflets that may not feature photos of Sunak or the Conservative logo and, at least in the case of Dame Andrea Jenkins, giving pride of place to Nigel Farageleader of the rival Reform UK party.
There is still something in the mood of voters “on the doorstep” that worries some labor activists. Most people interviewed agree that it is time for a change of government, but few of them express much enthusiasm for the Labor Party or its leader.
This is a far cry from 1997, when young Blair enjoyed near pin-up status.
For all their nagging misgivings, Labor strategists often mutter “boring is good” after another dull performance from Sir Keir.
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They know that indifference to the leader may not stop Labor enjoying a big victory, as long as the animosity towards the Tories is fierce enough.
Whether or not a former Conservative voter opts for Labour, the Liberal Democrats or the Reformists, Labor is generally well placed to take the seat due to the strength of its key vote.
Starmer’s safety-first approach means that the Labor Party is the dominant party offering the fewest electoral “bribes” to voters.
Its additional expenditure, as outlined in its manifesto, is the lowest of the three main parties and it is the only party to take into account the certainty that taxes will rise, as well as its own specific tax package, including VAT. about private education and the abolition of the untamed.
Labour’s promises to match the Conservatives by not increasing income tax, VAT and social security rates are another echo of New Labor in 1997.
The overall tax and labor spending package is more modest in size than any of its main rivals. In the opinion of the Independent Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), labor plans are “trivial”.
Starmer: ‘We can grow our economy’
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The IFS also doubts Starmer’s hope that rapid economic growth will obviate the need for cuts in unprotected departmental spending. However, the Conservatives have struggled to make good on their claim that Labor will cut the average family an additional £2,000 in taxes during the next parliament.
An unusual aspect of this campaign is that the Labor Party remains the most trusted to manage the economy in opinion polls – a policy area that is normally a banker of the Conservatives.
A Prime Minister Waiting
The Labor Party’s one-word slogan is “Change”. The change Starmer offers, however, is a return to stability after what he calls “chaos” under the Tories.
Starmer appeared at the launch and on the cover of the manifesto in shirt sleeves, but still wearing a tie, as did Blair.
Like Blair in 1997, his party presents him as a prime minister in waiting.
The manifesto booklet is the only one that features many photographs of the leader in performative service. These include a photo with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the D-Day ceremony.
Far from looking for a photo opportunity, labor sources say Zelenskyy was looking forward to the meeting and considered it one of the most important in his diary in Normandy.
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This side of election day, the biggest threat to the Labor Party is that the opinion polls are badly wrong.
Starmer won’t slip up now.
Neither Starmer nor Blair are dancers, but as they cross the shiny floor the same theme song plays in the background. Whether out of hope or despair, many voters appear to have decided that “things can only get better” if they make a shift away from the Conservatives.
Starmer might be able to get the vase to the finish line. Once there, he will discover that he carries a heavy burden.
This story originally appeared on News.sky.com read the full story
