The Labor Party is on track to win a 256-seat majority in the general election, while the Conservatives are heading for their worst defeat ever, according to a new poll.
In its first MRP model of the 2024 campaign, Ipsos estimated that Sir Keir Starmer’s party could win 453 seats and the Conservatives 115.
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If correct, this would give Labor a historic majority of 256, the largest of any post-war government, while plunging the number of Conservative MPs to historic lows.
It would also mean that key Conservative figures such as Grant Shapps, Penny Mordaunt, Gillian Keegan, Johnny Mercer and Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg would lose their seats.
Although Labor has consistently enjoyed a 20-point lead in polls, the Ipsos survey is the highest projection of what their majority could look like.
The poll also predicts that the Liberal Democrats could win 38 seats, the Scottish National Party 15, three for the Green Party and three for the UK Reform Party.
According to the projection, Nigel Farage is on track to overturn a huge Tory majority to win Clacton, while former Labor leader Jeremy Corbynconsidered independent, he is expected to lose to his former party in Islington North.
The poll is expected to cement fears within the Conservative Party of an extinction-level event.
Despite promises of further tax cuts in his manifesto, Rishi Sunak was unable to change the course of a campaign marked by political gaffes – notably his early departure from a D-Day event.
Repeated predictions of a landslide victory for the Labor Party have provoked sadness among some Conservatives, with the Prime Minister forced to insist on Monday that his party can still win the election after Shapps, the Defense Secretary, admitted that defeat was likely.
In recent days, senior figures have warned voters about the risk of a Labor “supermajority”, in a bid to convince undecided voters to stick with them.
More than 100 seats on a knife’s edge
The Ipsos projection predicts a huge majority for Labor, even taking into account more than 100 seats that are “very close to being called”.
The model finds that 117 seats are at risk, as they have a victory margin of less than five percentage points.
This highlights the extent to which the number of undecided voters can swing the outcome for the Conservatives.
Kelly Beaver, chief executive of Ipsos UK and Ireland, said: “The Labor Party is increasing its vote share in 2019 across the country, especially in Scotland and the North East, while the Conservatives are losing votes. in all regions – especially in the East and South of England”. , and in the Midlands.
“What is perhaps most worrying for them are the signs in the data that they are particularly losing vote share in areas where they were strongest in 2019.”
The research used the multilevel technique with post-stratification (MRP) to model individual constituency results based on a survey of 19,689 British adults and took place between 7 and 12 June.
It is the second poll released this week to use the technique, following a Survation poll on Monday that estimated a similarly massive Labor majority.
The Ipsos poll is the first MRP poll to be conducted entirely after Mr Farage announced he would take on the role of leader of Reform UK and making his eighth attempt to become a deputy, this time in Clacton, Essex.
Nigel Farage
Political scenario ‘moving towards significant change’
The poll suggests Farage is on course to win that seat, with his Reform UK party also winning Lee Anderson’s Ashfield constituency and possibly another seat with 12% of the national vote.
This puts the party on par in terms of seats with the Greens, who Ipsos suggests could win in Bristol Central, North Herefordshire and Waveney Valley, while losing their current Brighton Pavilion seat to Labour.
The poll also shows that the Liberal Democrats make gains in the South East and South West, increasing their number of seats to 38 and regaining their position as third party in the House of Commons.
Meanwhile, Ipsos said the SNP’s fate is “still very uncertain”, with the party in second place behind Labor in Scotland and expected to win around 15 seats, a significant reduction from 48 seats which he won in 2019. .
Ms. Beaver said the poll was “just a snapshot of people’s current voting intentions” and that “there is still time for things to change.”
She added: “But this data, in line with most of the evidence we have seen both in the run-up to this election and since the start of the campaign, in terms of the mood of the nation and the actual election results in local elections and by-elections , suggests that the British political scene may be heading towards yet another significant change.”
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