Dangerous times in foreign affairs can unite a party, but Sunak faces his own internal battles | Politics News

Deputies return to Westminster today, after two weeks away, faced with the possibility of a dangerous escalation in the Middle East.

But this is a week in which the prime minister will also need to avoid dangers domestically if he is to carry out some of the key policies on which his political survival depends.

One is legislation to declare Rwanda a safe country, which Downing Street hopes will finally receive royal assent this week.

It has the prospect of finally sending some failed asylum seekers there, which the government has touted as a deterrent to small boat crossings.

Almost two years since it was announced by Boris Johnson, many Conservatives remain skeptical that this could happen – there could be another intervention from the European Court of Human Rights, which blocked it last time by issuing an injunction. Or that it could happen on a scale that convinces voters that it has the potential to be a deterrent and change the tide politically.

But approval would be a key moment for the prime minister and his allies, who still hope – despite the polls – that the conservatives can begin to turn the situation around.

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The next test is the second reading – a vote on principles – of the Prime Minister’s controversial smoking and vaping legislation.

Billed as the surprise centerpiece of last year’s party conference, it is essentially a smoking ban for anyone over 14 – raising the smoking age by a year every year.

Several Conservatives have publicly questioned its viability and although it has Labor support and is approved; a considerable rebellion by Conservative MPs could spell danger for the Prime Minister’s authority.

This is also a week of important economic news, with Wednesday’s CPI inflation figures predicting a further fall of 3.4% to as low as 3.1%; moving ever closer to the Bank of England’s 2% target.

The Conservatives’ general election hopes depend on the economic narrative. Before the March Budget, Rishi Sunak told a conference that voters were starting to see “the green shoots of recovery” and that the economy had turned a corner. This is what the Tories’ hopes depend on.

But despite announcing cuts to national insurance for 27 million people, the Conservatives’ terrible position in the polls has barely changed. A steady stream of Conservative MPs is throwing in the towel.

There are times when perilous moments in foreign affairs bring a political party and its leader together in a difficult time. But a group of disgruntled Conservatives are looking to the May 2 local elections as a time to act against Sunak if he loses several Conservative councilors, as is predicted.

There are two weeks left, and this is a key week to show that in small boats, in the economy and in his own priorities, like smoking, he can make some progress.

Developments in the Middle East could also swing in the opposite direction. Today, the Prime Minister is likely to make a statement on the actions of UK forces to stop Iranian attacks.

But it could also ask him tough questions, including stronger calls for more defense spending in the UK – now uniting a vocal group of Conservatives and Labor.