A new AI tool can predict whether people with mild memory and mental agility problems are likely to develop Alzheimer’s disease in the future – without the need for invasive or expensive diagnostic tests.
The tool would allow people at risk to modify their lifestyles or start new drug treatments at an early stage, when they are most effective.
It would also prevent inappropriate treatment of people with cognitive problems that may be caused by other conditions such as anxiety and depression.
Scientists at the University of Cambridge used the artificial intelligence algorithm to analyze cognitive tests and brain MRIs of 1,500 patients in the UK, US and Singapore.
It was able to distinguish people with mild mental agility problems who would remain stable from those who would progress to Alzheimer’s disease over the next three years.
The tool’s prediction was more than 80% accurate, three times better than existing clinical methods for identifying patients likely to develop the disease, according to the study published in the journal eClinicalMedicine.
Professor Zoe Kourtzi, senior author of the study, said the AI Tool It could also predict whether a patient’s symptoms would worsen slowly or more quickly.
“This has the potential to significantly improve patient well-being by showing us which people need the closest care, while also removing anxiety from those patients who we anticipate will remain stable,” she said.
Being able to accurately identify patients likely to develop Alzheimer’s, using only routine clinical data and MRI brain scans, would be a game changer for the National Health Service.
Currently, an accurate diagnosis requires an expensive PET brain scanner or a spinal fluid sample collected by specially trained personnel. The NHS lacks both.
A lack of resources could make it difficult to access new medications that can slow the progression of symptoms – but only if patients are diagnosed in the early stages of the disease.
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Dr Ben Underwood, honorary consultant psychiatrist at Cambridgeshire and Peterborough NHS Foundation Trust, said he often sees people with memory problems.
“In the clinic I see how uncertainty about whether these could be the first signs of dementia can cause a lot of concern for people and their families, as well as being frustrating for doctors who would prefer to give definitive answers,” he said.
“The fact that we can reduce this uncertainty with the information we already have is exciting and is likely to become even more important as new treatments emerge.”
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Alison Gilderdale began repeating herself and struggling with her memory a decade ago. But it took six years for the symptoms to become clear enough for doctors to diagnose Alzheimer’s disease.
An earlier diagnosis would have helped her recognize what was happening to her.
“I thought I was fine and it was everyone saying ‘she’s not right,’” she said.
“Now I get a lot of help. Things like getting dressed were difficult.”
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