Even as parts of the East Coast are still recovering from the destruction caused by the remnants of Hurricane Debby, the upcoming Atlantic front is developing into a potential tropical storm.
Potential tropical cyclone five was taking shape 875 miles east-southeast of Antigua and was heading west-northwest at 23 mph, with several Caribbean islands, including the U.S. Virgin Islands, in its potential view, according to with the National Hurricane Center’s latest “probable path” forecast.
The potential cyclone was gaining strength quickly enough that the center said it would likely be a named tropical storm by the end of Monday. If so, Ernesto’s name is on the list for the next Atlantic storm.
If it eventually gains enough strength — sustained winds of 74 mph or more would be needed — it would be the third hurricane of the season. So far, the National Hurricane Center has not said the front was heading toward hurricane status.
The potential cyclone was producing maximum sustained winds of 30 mph Sunday night. Maximum sustained winds of 39 mph would be needed to upgrade to tropical storm status. It would be the fifth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season so far, as indicated by its temporary name.
The potential cyclone inspired a 48-hour tropical storm warning in the US, which in this case warns of possible damaging winds, strong waves and potential flooding of up to 15 centimeters of rain on the following Caribbean islands: Guadeloupe, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Saba, Sint Eustatius, Saint Martin and Saint Martin.
The front is projected to reach these islands early Tuesday afternoon, according to information from the hurricane center.
Additionally, the center is warning people in the Leeward Islands, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico — all west of the Caribbean islands under tropical storm warnings — to monitor the front, which could hit them in the morning. of Wednesday. .
Its federal forecast trajectory leads toward the Caribbean region, but then turns directly north toward the Atlantic, keeping it off the continental U.S. coast for now.
The formation of the potential cyclone appears to be consistent with the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration latest perspectives for the Atlantic hurricane season, which concludes that there is a 90% chance of a higher-than-normal number of storms when it ends in November.
Colorado State University hurricane forecast is in agreement. It says near-record heat in the tropical Atlantic is providing ample fuel for storm development.
“Extremely warm sea surface temperatures provide a dynamic and thermodynamic environment much more conducive to the formation and intensification of hurricanes,” the institution said in its latest forecast document, published on Sunday.
He added: “We anticipate a well above average probability for major hurricanes.”
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