Joe Biden’s decision to halt supply of arms to Israel if Rafah is invaded could come back to haunt him | World News

All decisions have intended consequences and unintended consequences.

The intended consequence of President Biden’s threat to stop sending some weapons to Israel It is simple: prevent the Israeli army from entering Rafah without a clear and viable plan for the civilian population.

But there are many unintended consequences. In Tel Aviv and the Capitol they are already beginning to demonstrate.

Both geopolitically and internally to mr biden This decision could come to haunt him.

Even before considering the unintended consequences, there is a key point: the dangers of setting red lines.

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Too often they prove to be flawed tools of geopolitical diplomacy.

And if Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu destroy the red line and invade Rafah?

He has already said that he will go ahead with the Rafah operation. Position? Maybe, but the last seven months have shown us that he does what he says he will do.

Israel probably has enough American weapons stockpiled to enter Rafah.

So will Biden follow through on his threat to withdraw arms deliveries? Or will he give in? What message will both options send throughout the world?

This leads us to unintended consequences. First, the regional consequences.

• Highest number of civilian victims: If Netanyahu continues his operation in Rafah but with a dwindling supply of American weapons (so-called smart bombs), then he will increasingly use less sophisticated “dumb bombs.” This could cause even more civilian casualties.
• Impact on the ceasefire: It is logical that Hamas considers this decision to weaken Israel and therefore resists in the ongoing negotiations to get more benefits from them.
• Reduce leverage elsewhere: The United States constantly pressures Israel on other issues, such as opening the borders with Gaza for humanitarian aid, addressing settler violence in the West Bank and resisting the temptation to launch a full-scale war with Hezbollah in Lebanon. How will all this affect this schism in relationships?

• An emboldened Iran? Limiting arms to its oldest Middle East ally at a time of deep danger for Israel is seen by some as a gift to Tehran.
• The message it sends: That the United States can be seen to abandon Israel (even though that is not what Biden has said) will not go unnoticed by countries around the world. He suggests that the United States is unstable with its alliances. For months, Biden has rejected calls to limit gun supplies. He now he has turned around. If Biden blinks when Netanyahu crosses the Rafah red line, then the shaky picture will only worsen. The question will be what the United States represents.

Then there are the internal political consequences. And they are huge.

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They were explained in detail by his presidential opponent, Donald Trump: “What Biden is doing regarding Israel is shameful. If any Jew voted for Joe Biden, they should be ashamed of themselves. He has totally abandoned Israel and no one can believe it.”

That sentiment was shared by a group of Republican senators on Capitol Hill, incandescent with anger as they framed Biden’s decision as an abandonment of Israel.

President Biden has already alienated key sectors of the voting population with his current Gaza policy.

By unequivocally supporting Netanyahu so far, he has angered key Arab-American populations in places like Michigan, a state he needs to win in November.

Beyond that, students — many of whom have been protesting and would be natural Biden voters — say they can’t vote for him now. ‘Genocide Joe’ is his cry.

Now, with his gun announcement, he risks alienating Jewish-American voters as well. Many are deeply angry at what they see as an abandonment of the Jewish state.

His poorly articulated insistence that he will continue to support Israel on defense will go unnoticed by many voters. They only see the headline.

Remember that almost all Republicans are against any lever he uses to control Israel; they want nothing less than unequivocal support for Israel.

But there’s more to it than that: A significant number of his own Democrats are also uncomfortable with the United States limiting weapons for Israel. Only the progressive left of his party supports his measure.

It is a dangerous political tug-of-war and the elections are six months away.