Fuel industry group targets Biden, Democrats in key states over emissions standards

It is a high-risk issue for AFPM, whose Board of Directors has representatives from major petrochemical companies, including Marathon, Chevron, Citgo, ExxonMobil, Valero and others.

But Chet Thompson, the group’s president, told NBC News in an interview that there is “disbelief” among consumers that such a dramatic shift in the auto industry could be on the horizon. And he believes the group’s broader advertising campaign — on which it has spent more than $17 million since last fall — will be effective because of how personal the issue is to consumers.

“I can’t think of many policies that would have a greater impact on real people’s lives than this one,” Thompson said.

“It’s an issue that almost everyone can relate to, it’s very personal,” he continued. “People choose cars that fit their needs and their lifestyle, and now the federal government, of all entities, is going to limit that choice and limit people’s freedoms.”

The Biden administration has prioritized a series of policies aimed at reducing vehicle emissions. Provided billions of dollars in grants to boost the electric vehicle industry and tax incentives for ease the cost burden about consumers wanting to switch to electric vehicles.

It’s part of a broader carrot-and-stick approach: The Environmental Protection Agency finalized new exhaust emissions limits in March who said it would be “avoid more than 7 billion tons of carbon emissions” and “accelerate the transition to clean vehicle technologies.” (The agencies are also pursuing other related rules.)

How does EPA expect automakers to meet these goals? This foresees that electric vehicles would represent between 30% -56% of sales of “new light vehicles” by 2032. Electric vehicles represented less than 8% of the national automobile market in 2023, according to Cox Automotivean increase compared to 2022.

“These stronger pollution standards for cars solidify America’s leadership in building a clean transportation future and creating good-paying American jobs, while advancing President Biden’s historic climate agenda,” said the administrator of EPA’s Michael Regan in a March statement announcing the rule. “The standards will reduce more than 7 billion tons of climate pollution, improve air quality in overburdened communities, and give drivers more clean vehicle options while saving them money.”

Thompson repeatedly emphasized during his interview that his group is not against electric cars (its members are also involved in manufacturing them). But he argued that emission standards are too strict and that, combined with a potential market downturn for electric vehicles, manufacturers will We have to deprioritize gasoline cars even more to sell enough electric vehicles to meet emissions standards.

“If an EV works for someone and meets their family’s needs and budget, go for it, it’s great. Our members make it all possible,” Thompson said. “For us, it’s about the fact that EVs are not right for everyone and that consumers in this country have the ability to choose a car that meets their needs.”

The debate over electric vehicles has become politically charged. Biden and many Democrats have argued that the standards are an important milestone in their quest to combat climate change.

But Republicans angrily called the strategy not only disruptive to consumers but also an affront to those whose jobs are tied to the gas-powered auto industry. For example, Trump recently warned that Biden’s auto policies would lead to a “bloodbath” in the economy.

Research on the topic has been mixed. A 2023 Pew Research Center poll found that 59% of American adults opposed phasing out new gasoline cars by 2035, while 40% favored the concept. (Although the Biden administration hasn’t gone that far, some states like California have.) In battleground Michigan, the birthplace of the auto industry, likely voters were divided in a late February poll on whether they supported the transition to electric vehicles.

And in an NBC News focus group in the spring with Michigan residents in union households, only two of 15 participants said they supported new federal emissions standards, although none said the debate would weigh on their vote.

Public polls show a deep partisan divide on this issue, with Republicans much more likely to oppose these types of policies and Democrats more likely to support them. That said, AFPM has shared polls that show clearer opposition when policies are described as “bans.”

Besides Biden, all of the lawmakers mentioned in the new AFMP ads are Democrats. Some are incumbents facing tough re-election fights (such as Wisconsin Senator Tammy Baldwin, Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey, Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown, and Nevada Senator Jacky Rosen); others are House members seeking a promotion to the Senate (such as Rep. Ruben Gallego of Arizona, Rep. Elissa Slotkin of Michigan, and Rep. Colin Allred of Texas); and others are incumbents who won’t face voters this fall (like Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly, Michigan Sens. Gary Peters and Debbie Stabenow, and Georgia Sens. John Ossoff and Raphael Warnock).

While Thompson has called on opponents of the rule to contact Republicans before, none of those ads mention a Republican lawmaker.

Thompson said the lawmakers highlighted in the ads are those the group wants registered before attempts to tear down these rules through the Congressional Review Act, a law that allows Congress to reject certain agency rules.

Congress has held votes aimed at rolling back some of the government’s related rules, but even though they have won some bipartisan support (including from Democrats in tough re-election fights, such as Brown, from Ohio, and Jon Tester, senator from Montana), the efforts did not achieve a veto-proof majority.

But with the November elections approaching, he warned that supporters of the emission rules could “cause voter wrath”.

“If you take the right stance on this issue, you will stand with your people,” he said. “This is an underlying issue that will really touch people the more they find out about it.”