Democrats prepare to review Senate filibuster for major bills if they win in 2024

WASHINGTON — The fate of the Senate filibuster is up for vote in the 2024 elections, as Democrats rally around weakening the 60-vote threshold to pass major legislation such as codifying abortion rights and strengthening federal voting rights .

If President Joe Biden is reelected and Democrats control the Senate, they will likely have the votes to change the filibuster. The cause has become a litmus test in the party, supported by senators who will remain in office next year as well as the party’s candidates in key races that will decide which party controls the majority.

Meanwhile, Sens. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., and Kyrsten Sinema, I-Ariz., who cast decisive votes in 2022 to stop Democrats from weakening the filibuster, are retiring. Manchin said he has “serious concerns” that the filibuster will survive after he is gone.

Under the current filibuster, 60 votes are needed to start and end debate on most legislation, meaning 41 senators can effectively veto bills. Sen. Jeff Merkley, D-Ore., said he is optimistic that Democrats will have enough support to “reform the filibuster and impose a talking filibuster” in the next Congress so that a minority cannot block bills without holding the floor and speaking out. continuously.

“Unfortunately, two people decided to support the effortless filibuster as opposed to the talking filibuster,” Merkley told NBC News. “But I think everyone who remains is very supportive of going through the process of getting the Senate working again.”

It would have far-reaching impacts on establishing majority rule in a chamber that has normalized requiring an absolute majority to pass most bills over the past two decades, with an important exception for temporary changes to taxes and spending. Such a change would be celebrated by progressives, who consider the modern filibuster an undemocratic chokepoint for popular legislation.

Proponents consider the filibuster a rare tool for encouraging bipartisanship and promoting stability in legislation. But even moderate Democrats say the modern 60-vote threshold makes the Senate dysfunctional.

“I’ve been here a little over three years and I’ve never seen an organization with rules like the United States Senate,” said Senator Mark Kelly, Democrat of Arizona, and a former astronaut. “If NASA had these rules, the rocket would never leave the launch pad. So, as rule changes come up, I will evaluate them based on their merits.”

Many Republican senators insist they would preserve the filibuster even if they gained control of the White House and Congress. They include conservative Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wisconsin, who said he “absolutely” supports the 60-vote rule.

“We are united in this. We realize that the tables are going to turn, and if they had ultimate control, this country would be finished,” Johnson said, calling it a bulwark against “socialist and radical left policies.” He said if Donald Trump wins the presidency, he could use executive power to secure the border if Democrats filibuster immigration bills.

Democrats’ Path to an Anti-Filibuster Majority

Changing filibuster rules would require a simple majority in the Senate. If Democrats end up with 50 or more seats and have Vice President Kamala Harris to break the tie, they will likely have the votes.

With Manchin retiring, it is almost certain that the open seat in West Virginia will flip to the Republican Party this fall. But Democrats have a plausible — if difficult — path to holding on to the remaining 50 votes.

It calls for retaining seats in red-leaning Montana and Ohio, as well as the purple states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada and Arizona.

The likely Democratic candidate to replace Sinema in Arizona, Rep. Ruben Gallego, promises that if he is elected he would support “waiving the filibuster to codify Roe v. Wade.” Wade.”

Democratic candidates for open seats in California (Rep. Adam Schiff), Michigan (Rep. Elissa Slotkin), Delaware (Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester) and Maryland (County Executive Angela Alsobrooks) called for eliminating the filibuster.

“I’m very proud to reform the filibuster so we can vote on gun laws, voter access and women’s rights,” Slotkin told constituents in a video she posted on Instagram. “All of these things could be voted on tomorrow if we just needed 51 instead of 60.”

Alsobrooks, who won the Democratic primary in Maryland on Tuesday, it says on her website: “Angela strongly believes that the filibuster in the Senate should be eliminated.”

His Republican opponent, former governor Larry Hogan, said he is “a big supporter of the filibuster.”

Schiff said he would prefer major policy changes to the current impasse, emphasizing that ending the filibuster is the only way to pass abortion rights, gun safety and voting rights measures and mitigate climate change. He said he doesn’t worry about Republicans using a filibuster-free Senate to reverse liberal gains once they take power.

“Republican policies are so reactionary, backward and unpopular that if they are ever actually in a position to put them into practice, they will be removed from office in the blink of an eye,” he said.

And Democrats running in the red-leaning states of Texas (Rep. Colin Allred) and Florida (former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell) have also advocated exceptions to the filibuster to establish federal abortion rights. The Republican Party is the front-runner in these states, but Democrats could hold the majority without them.

Biden has said he supports excluding the filibuster from passing voting rights and abortion rights legislation. The White House declined to comment beyond its public remarks and did not say whether it would extend to other priorities such as gun legislation.

Trump pushed to destroy the filibuster

If Trump and the Republicans win the election, Republican senators would likely face pressure from Trump to end the filibuster. He repeatedly demanded they scrap the 60-vote rule during his tenure as president. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., refused in 2017 and 2018. Although McConnell is stepping down as GOP leader, it’s unclear whether Trump would be more successful this time.

Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., said he expects a push to end the filibuster to tighten immigration laws if the GOP wins in November.

“Honestly, if we run the table politically in November and we have control of both chambers and President Trump has the White House, it wouldn’t surprise me if getting additional tools to keep the border under control was used as an argument for blowing up the filibuster. ,” Tillis told reporters.

But he said he would vehemently oppose it.

“The day Republicans vote to detonate him will be the day I resign,” Tillis said, arguing that doing so would “destroy the Senate.”

Trump campaign spokespeople did not respond to requests for comment.

Sen. Josh Hawley, R-Missouri, said he is open to possible changes.

“Never say never, but I can’t think of anything that comes to mind immediately,” he said. “The filibuster has meant different things over time. And there are different ways to implement it. Then we could talk about how the filibuster is structured. You have to hold the floor or not, etc. We could probably talk about it.

Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, who faces a competitive re-election bid, said he is committed to preserving the 60-vote rule even if his party wins the election and Democrats use it to block legislation.

“Yes,” he replied when asked.

Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., who also faces re-election this fall, said, “I believe in the filibuster.”

Even if the Republicans have control and that threatens their agenda?

“I believe in the filibuster,” he repeated.