PORTLAND, Ore. Two Democratic primaries for U.S. House seats in Oregon could help reveal whether the party’s voters lean more toward progressive or establishment factions in a critical presidential election year.
The state’s 3rd Congressional District, which includes much of the liberal Portland region, will have its first open Democratic primary since 1996 with the retirement of U.S. Rep. Earl Blumenauer.
Two candidates with similar platforms are leading the fundraising: Maxine Dexter, a doctor and two-term state representative, and Susheela Jayapal, a former county commissioner endorsed by U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont. Jayapal is the sister of U.S. Representative Pramila Jayapal of Washington state, who chairs the Congressional Progressive Caucus.
While outside money and allegations of Republican interference have marred the race, national Democrats can safely bet on keeping the district solidly blue as they seek to overturn the GOP’s slim House majority. Party leaders are keeping a closer eye on the state’s 5th Congressional District, which will likely host one of the most competitive races in the country.
“This is one of the big swing districts nationally that both parties are really looking to keep or recapture the House,” said Ben Gaskins, associate professor of political science at Lewis. & Clark College, said of the 5th District of Oregon. “I think the big question is: To what extent are Democratic voters really going to prioritize electability?”
Eager to reclaim the 5th District after it was flipped by the GOP in 2022 for the first time in about 25 years, congressional Democrats are supporting Janelle Bynum. They see her as having a better chance of winning in November than Jamie McLeod-Skinner, the progressive who in the 2022 midterm primaries ousted the moderate Democrat who long held the seat and then lost to Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer in the general election, Gaskins said.
“I think a lot of Democrats are going to hold that against her,” he said of McLeod-Skinner’s narrow defeat in 2022. “She had a chance. She lost.”
Top Democrats supported Bynum, including Oregon Governor Tina Kotek and three of the state’s U.S. representatives.
The fundraising arm of U.S. House Democrats, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, nominated Bynum to its “Red to Blue” program, noting that Bynum previously defeated Chavez-DeRemer in the midterm elections. The program provides organizational and financial support to Democrats running to flip Republican districts.
Meanwhile, a recent flurry of spending by a political action committee on behalf of McLeod-Skinner has raised questions about whether Republicans are trying to tip the scales in favor of a more progressive candidate they consider easier to defeat in the general election.
Representative Richard Hudson, chairman of the House Republicans’ campaign arm, said he was unaware of Republican involvement in the Democratic primary.
The 5th District’s boundaries were significantly redrawn following the 2020 census. It encompasses disparate regions encompassing the Portland metro region and its wealthy and working-class suburbs, as well as rural agricultural and mountain communities and the central Oregon city of Bend , fast growing, on the other side of the Cascade Range.
“I think the candidates are trying to figure out exactly what the secret sauce is in this district, because there are a lot of different interests here,” said Chris Koski, a political science professor at Reed College in Portland.
McLeod-Skinner, an attorney who has served in several local governments, lives in central Oregon with her wife and presents herself as someone who can bring rural and urban voters together. Her campaign website says that while attending high school in southern Oregon, she helped support her family by “cleaning horse stables and shaking hay.” This is the third time she has run for Congress.
Bynum, of Washington, D.C., was elected to the Oregon House in 2016, representing the southeast suburbs of Portland. She served on the chamber’s small business committee and owns four McDonald’s franchises.
Both women studied engineering and have similar political stances. They support protecting abortion, reducing healthcare costs and combating climate change.
As of Friday, Bynum had outbid McLeod-Skinner by about $385,000. But much of the money in the race came from outside super PAC spending. These groups cannot contribute directly to campaigns, but they can spend unlimited amounts of money on advertising for or against candidates.
A PAC called Mainstream Democrats spent nearly $380,000 supporting Bynum and the same amount opposing McLeod-Skinner, federal campaign finance records show.
Although both candidates have engineering backgrounds, the 314 Action Fund, which says it focuses on electing Democrats with scientific backgrounds to Congress, spent more than $470,000 on ads and mailers in support of Bynum.
The super PAC also invested heavily in Oregon’s 3rd District, spending nearly $2.2 million on ads supporting Dexter, a pulmonologist.
Another PAC, the newly created Voters for Responsive Government, spent $2.4 million opposing Jayapal.
Jayapal and McLeod-Skinner have criticized what they call the “dark money” flowing into racing.
Jayapal suggested that 314 Action Fund spending in the 3rd District is tied to “MAGA Republican mega-donors.” His campaign manager, Andrea Cervone, said in an email that there has been “a growing trend across the country of billionaires and millionaires with a history of donating to MAGA Republicans” funneling money into the Democratic primary.
Cervone said the 314 Action Fund raised and spent much of its money in April, meaning the group won’t have to disclose its donors until the next federal filing deadline on May 20, the day before the election.
In a statement this month responding to comments about “dark money,” Dexter condemned outside spending on ads aimed at his opponent: “I do not condone or support these negative ads in any way and remain committed to positive conversation.”
Dexter’s campaign has also recently been boosted by direct contributions from individuals. It reported raising more than $218,000 in a single day earlier this month, including from donors who previously gave to Republican candidates and the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, or AIPAC, federal records show.
Jayapal calls herself the first candidate in the race to call for a ceasefire in Gaza.
With Democratic leaders in each race largely sharing policy platforms, voters may have to choose based on style. Dexter and Bynum highlight their legislative records, while Jayapal and McLeod-Skinner support their progressive endorsements, Gaskins said.
“I think this division between pragmatism and idealism in the Democratic electorate will be the best way to distinguish them,” Gaskins said. “Is it about taking the boldest progressive stance on issues or emphasizing the ability to get things done?”
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