Photo from Getty Images of voters in line.
Will one of Donald Trump’s many potential deal-breakers break the deal for citizens still undecided about who to vote for in November? The economy, which most Americans view negatively, could become the biggest obstacle of all – but for Joe Bidennot Trump.
Facing an extremely important presidential election, many Americans, myself included, worry about the future of this country. Our primary concern is the ongoing threat to democracy, truth, and fundamental American values posed by Trump and his idiotic allies inside and outside Congress.
In this never-ending nightmare, I’ve banged my head against the wall and wondered how millions and millions of Americans can ignore the blaring warning signs that announce exactly what to expect if Trump wins and, alternatively, what to expect if he loses and – for the surprise to exactly no one – refuses to budge. If you think his and his allies’ unhinged response after his hush money conviction was alarming, prepare for their reaction if he loses in November.
Since 2016, Trump has committed to what for any other candidate at any other time would be deal-breaker after deal-breaker after deal-breaker. Even his frequent fact-disputed hateful posts on social media would be enough to sink almost any other candidate’s campaign. But finally, after the 2020 election, it seemed like he had gone too far. Certainly, inciting a violent insurrection at the U.S. Capitol in an attempt to overturn a legal election would be the final straw for Americans already exhausted by years of Trumpian drama.
No.
But what about all the crimes he faces in federal and state courts? What about his new status as a convicted felon after the recent trial in New York?
While it is too early to say how this conviction on 34 criminal charges will affect Trump’s support, the poll numbers leading up to the trial were not harmed by his multiple pending criminal cases or the civil cases already decided against him. With all that legal smoke hanging around this man, it’s a miracle his electoral prospects didn’t expire due to smoke inhalation.
MY MISTAKE AND THE MISTAKE OF MANY worried about the same opinion are forgetting James Carvillethe famous injunction to Bill Clinton’s campaign in 1992, when Clinton successfully attempted to remove President George HW Bush. Carville, then Clinton’s campaign strategist, told campaign volunteers to remember three things:
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The economy, stupid.
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Change versus more of the same.
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Don’t forget about health care.
While number 2 remains relevant in this election and number 3 less so, history has preserved the first immutable rule: if voters perceive a poor economy, they will use it against the current president, regardless of who is to blame. Of course, the US economy, in many ways, is doing well, and President Biden doesn’t get enough credit for steering the US through a difficult pandemic/post-pandemic economy without a feared recession happening. However, these fact-based arguments tend to dissolve in the face of family budgets struggling to stay in the black.
For many Americans who are on the fence about the upcoming election, one trip to the grocery store is enough to push them over the fence and straight into the former president’s lap. All those $4.99 products that just a year ago sold for $2.99, and gadzooks, a watermelon coin costing $6.99 at your local Kroger!
High food prices, stubbornly high gasoline prices—still around $3.59 a gallon in much of Ohio as of this writing—and other painful cost increases could cloud the outlook on aforementioned Trump deal-breakers. Of course, our democracy is under threat, Trump is a lying, lawless scoundrel who faces years in prison, and to top it off, he is an unrepentant authoritarian. But damn, how about two dollars for an avocado?!
THE TRUTH IS THAT MANY of Americans who will decide this election do not anxiously follow the latest news. What they see at the grocery store, the gas station, the car dealership, their monthly rent, and their paychecks is much more compelling than the news bulletins they hear as they go about their daily lives. A young breadwinner who earns $14 an hour and has no benefits working behind the counter at an auto parts store will pay much more attention to immediate economic factors than talking heads wringing their hands over the future of democracy.
If they are called out for being Trump supporters, they might simply respond (with a heavy dose of selective/repressive memory): “I don’t like him, but I miss his economy.”
And, let’s face it, after years of Trumpian drama, many Americans have grown tired. His latest outrage is just, well, his latest outrage, and nothing he can do surprises anyone anymore.
The November 2024 presidential elections will put James Carville’s government to the test. How far can the presidential candidate behave before that bad behavior outweighs everyday economic stressors and sends the candidate home?
In a commentary published May 23, Ohio Capital Journal editor-in-chief David DeWitt pondered a similar question about Ohio’s grossly dysfunctional state politics.
In his exciting opinion piece“Ohio State Republicans are determined to prove how toxic gerrymandering is,” DeWitt asked how corrupt, extreme, irresponsible and abusive the gerrymandered, Republican-dominated Ohio Statehouse must be before the state’s voters finally say “ enough”.
Different issues, no doubt, between presidential politics and Ohio state politics, but both situations constitute a defining test for voters. In the case of the presidential election, will they defend democracy, decency, truth and historic American principles, or will they follow the path of least resistance – they have to do something about these high prices! – and let democracy fall into oblivion?
Whatever the answer, one thing leaves no doubt: we will find out soon.
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The post In November, will economic stress prevail over the future of American democracy? appeared first on Ohio Capital Newspaper.
