Before a jury meets Donald Trump guilty of 34 crimesThere has been a fair amount of research into the potential impact in the 2024 presidential elections. There was, however, an important warning hanging overhead.
Like us discussed last week, investigators routinely asked the public their opinion about things that happened. The task becomes a little more complicated when researchers ask about expected opinions related to things that not yet occurred.
Now that the trial has concluded and the public knows that the former president has been found guilty, the data from the inquiry takes on even greater significance.
This does not mean that all Some caveats have disappeared – early data can sometimes be less reliable as the public takes time to digest key developments – but those who want to know what Trump’s guilty verdict means in an electoral context can and should take note of the latest data.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at the latest research, each of which has been released in the last few days.
ABC News/Ipsos Poll: In this poll, a 50% plurality said the jury in the Trump case made the right decision; a 51% majority concluded that the former president intentionally did something illegal in this case; and a 49% plurality believes that the presumptive Republican nominee should end his candidacy as a result of the guilty verdict.
The same data found President Joe Biden with a two point advantage about Trump, after finding the two major party candidates tied before the trial.
Reuters poll: In this poll, 10% of registered Republican voters said they were less likely to vote for Trump now that he has been found guilty of crimes. Likewise, 25% of registered independent voters said the same thing. The same data also found Biden leading by two points.
Morning Consult Poll: In this poll, a 54% majority approved the verdict in Trump’s case, and 15% of Republican voters said the former president should end his candidacy because he was found guilty. Also worth noting: About 7 in 10 voters in this poll said Trump’s other pending criminal trials should be resolved before voters cast their ballots in the fall.
CBS News/YouGov Poll: In this survey, the outlet contacted Americans interviewed before the verdict again. Although few changed their minds, the results showed that a 54% majority agreed that Trump’s trial in New York was fair; a 57% majority agreed with the jury’s verdict; and a 51% majority said Trump is not fit for president.
When House Speaker Mike Johnson traveled to Manhattan Criminal Court a few weeks ago to show your support for his party’s presumptive nominee, the Louisiana Republican made a bold assumption about public attitudes.
The Republican Party Congress leader began by considering the trial a “farce”, before adding“I think everyone in the country can see this for what it really is.”
It was a dubious claim at the time. It’s worse now.
This article was originally published in MSNBC.com
