What the first polls after Trump’s conviction show – and don’t show

News organizations and pollsters released several snap polls over the weekend to assess the political landscape after a New York jury convicted former President Donald Trump of 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in connection with a secret payment to the actor. adult cinema Stormy Daniels.

Here are five takeaways from what different national polls told us — and didn’t tell us — after the historic verdict.

1. The majority agrees with the verdict

A CBS News/YouGov Poll showed that 57% of adults said the jury in Trump’s trial reached the correct verdict. This finding was supported by a Morning Consult Pollin which 54% of registered voters said they approved the verdict, as well as a ABC News/Ipsos Pollin which 50% of adults stated that the verdict was correct.

These results are in line with national polls leading up to the verdict, which consistently showed small majorities saying the charges against Trump they were seriousand that he was being considered the same as anyone else accused of these crimes.

2. Republicans remain firmly behind Trump

O title of a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Saturday said 1 in 10 Republicans said they are less likely vote for Trump after the verdict. But fair warning: these voters constitute a clear minority in their party.

In truth, in the same poll55% of Republican voters said the verdict made no difference to their vote and 34% said it made them more likely to vote for Trump.

What’s more, the 1 in 10 Republican voters who said they were less likely to vote for Trump were nearly identical to one NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll found before the verdict. That poll, conducted May 21-23, showed that 10% of Republicans said they would be less likely to vote for Trump if he were convicted, 25% said they would be more likely, and 68% said it would make no difference.

Make no mistake: even a portion of Republicans who defect from Trump could be decisive in five months. But the main conclusion – at this moment – ​​is how 9 in 10 Republicans support him in the Reuters/Ipsos poll.

3. The general political environment has not changed much

This may be the biggest takeaway yet from early post-conviction research. Two of the surveys – Reuters/Ipsos It is Morning consultation — released the results of the dispute between President Joe Biden and Trump after the verdict. While the movement in each of them was in Biden’s direction, it was within the margin of error and looked like other national polls we saw before the verdict.

• Reuters/Ipsos poll of registered voters: Biden 41%, Trump 39% (compared to Biden 40%, Trump 40% previously).
• Morning Consult poll of registered voters: Biden 45%, Trump 44% (compared to Trump 44%, Biden 42% previously).

Additionally, the ABC News/Ipsos poll found that favorability ratings for Trump and Biden remained essentially unchanged from a previous poll conducted in March.

Now, analysts they are correct that a permanent change of 2 or 3 points for Biden could also be decisive in November. Still, national polls showing results of 41% vs. 39% or 44% vs. 42% don’t tell us who will win – and only suggest that the race is close (especially in the Electoral College system). Furthermore, Thursday’s guilty verdict is unlikely to be the last major upset in the 2024 presidential election.

4. Undecided voters appear to support Trump’s conviction

Although the general political environment appears unchanged, these ABC News/Ipsos Poll worth noting: a slim majority of independents believe 1) that the verdict was correct and 2) that Trump should end his candidacy.

And these views are even more pronounced among Americans who have unfavorable views of Biden and Trump – the so-called “double haters” – with about two-thirds of them thinking that the verdict was correct and that Trump should end his candidacy, so according to the same survey.

5. Still very early

It’s important to keep in mind: Snapshot polls conducted after a historic event – ​​such as the first former US president to be found guilty of criminal charges – may not always be the best indicators of what is likely to happen.

Let’s see how all the research turns out in the coming weeks.