Trump’s VP Search Enters New Phase: From the Politics Department

Welcome to the online version of From the Policy Deska nightly newsletter that brings you the latest reporting and analysis from the NBC News politics team on the campaign, the White House and Capitol Hill.

In today’s edition, we report on Donald Trump’s accelerated vice presidential selection process. Additionally, chief political analyst Chuck Todd asks whether Trump’s guilty verdict would matter more if President Joe Biden were more popular.

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Trump’s VP search enters a new phase

By Henry J. Gomez, Matt Dixon, Jonathan Allen and Dasha Burns

Donald Trump’s search for a running mate is intensifying as the former president awaits sentencing on criminal charges and prepares for next month’s Republican National Convention.

Vice presidential candidates recently received vetting materials, five sources familiar with the process told NBC News.

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Trump’s search, according to one source, is heavily focused on four top prospects:

• North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum
• Senator Marco Rubio of Florida
• Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina
• Senator J.D. Vance of Ohio

Another source described a three-way competition involving Burgum, Rubio and Vance.

It is unclear, however, who was asked to provide verification details that could rule them out or not. Burgum, who has been spending more time with Trump in recent weeks, is among those who received the request, a source familiar with the request said. Aides to Burgum and other would-be running mates declined or did not respond to requests for comment this week.

Sources close to conversations about the search have warned that Trump is working from a fluid list that sometimes includes more than half a dozen names. Additions, subtractions and the emergence of dark horse candidates remain possible.

Trump and his advisers kept tight control over the search, which until recently had been relatively quiet, as the presumptive Republican nominee stood trial on 34 criminal counts of falsifying business records related to a secret payment to an adult film star.

Trump has said in interviews that the decision on his running mate will likely come closer to the convention, which begins July 15 in Milwaukee. In 2016, he announced Mike Pence as his running mate days before that year’s nominating convention in Cleveland.

Read more about the veepstakes →

Polling Fog Hits 2024 Campaign

By Chuck Todd

After the historic felony conviction of a former president who is also the Republican Party’s presumptive presidential nominee, the entire political community is trying to figure out what that means now and what it will mean in November.

There was a time when immoral and unethical behavior was a political death sentence. But as big technology and social media have algorithmically accelerated our tribal instincts, it has never been easier for someone, guilty or not, to claim victimhood among some segment of the public. The red and blue tribes nowadays have an incredible ability to compartmentalize the bad behavior of the people on their side, while criticizing an opponent with similar or worse characteristics.

For me, the real question of whether the verdict will have an impact on voters lies in the hands of the two presidential campaigns. How much is the verdict front and center versus simply setting the atmosphere?

The question I always ask myself is this: Would this verdict matter more to voters if President Joe Biden had a higher approval rating?

It’s an impossible hypothesis to test at this point, but we can’t help but wonder if some voters are ignoring Trump’s moral and ethical failings simply because they don’t think Biden is up to the job. Of course, if Biden had been better off politically, the Republican Party might have gone in a different direction during the primaries.

The point is that politics is a zero-sum game and this is a binary choice where the public believes they have to elect someone who is flawed. This goes back to a question about the two types of swing voters in this election: aspirational and transactional. Aspirational voters vote for what is in the best interest of the country, and transactional voters vote for what they believe is in their own interest. I’m not sure there are many aspiring voters left in the undecided column, but I believe there are still some transactional voters left.

So far, the limited polling I’ve seen (including private campaign polling) indicates that the verdict has barely changed the numbers over the past week. Of course, “evil” could still be decisive in a close election, so I don’t want to dismiss the idea that even a 1-2 point move wouldn’t matter.

Read more from Chuck →

That’s all from The Politics Desk for now. If you have feedback – like or dislike – send us an email at newsletter@nbcuni.com

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