But the change in that number is mainly a result of companies deciding they don’t need to fill as many roles, not because of a rise in unemployment.
“Companies are simply not laying off people [many] workers,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at financial services group Moody’s Analytics, in an interview with NBC News.
Instead, he said, they are reducing hiring, hours and temporary work.
“There is still underlying job growth,” Zandi said.
Overall, the US economy remains on firm ground. Federal Reserve officials continue to say uncertainty remains about how long the rapid price growth that has plagued consumers since the start of the pandemic will last.
A slower pace of job growth, economists say, should slow those inflation rates.
“This could be good news for the Federal Reserve, as the overall employment pace in April was more consistent with its 2% inflation target,” said Fred Ashton, director of competition policy at the American Action Forum, a center-right think tank.
An effect that follows current conditions: fewer people who are already employed are looking for opportunities elsewhere. The BLS also reported this week that the rate of worker layoffs has held steady for six months, although it has fallen significantly from its post-pandemic peak.
It is a sign that the “Great Resignation”, which saw workers take on new roles en masse – often at higher pay levels as businesses reopened during the pandemic – is now behind us, to be replaced by the “Great Stay”.
But as long as outright layoffs remain moderate, Zandi said, “The economy could create a few hundred thousand jobs a month.”
A slowdown in the labor market also means lower wage growth, a negative development for workers but a sign that overall inflation is likely to cool further.
“In the wake of the volatility and disruption associated with the pandemic, labor supply and demand are becoming more balanced,” said Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at Bankrate, in an emailed statement.
Robust hiring for lower-wage workers
Although all economic sectors experience slowdowns in the labor market, some still record high levels of employment growth. Leisure and hospitality, which includes recreation, accommodation and food service roles, maintained the highest hiring rate, BLS data shows.
Professional and business services, an umbrella category that includes both higher- and lower-paying jobs, were next.
More information comes from a dataset created by financial services group Vanguard, which shows that hiring of middle- and high-income workers has slowed, while lower-income workers continue to be hired at a healthy rate.
“We are certainly seeing within companies that the hiring rate among more expensive or higher-paid workers has been declining,” said Fiona Grieg, global head of research and investor policy at Vanguard, in an interview.
Although they still earn less on a relative basis, lower-wage workers now earn more than they did before the pandemic. Hiring Forums Show McDonald’s now pays its hourly workers up to $13 per hour, compared to just $10 per hour before the pandemic. Although the inflationary environment has undermined the purchasing power of some of this increase, the wages of hourly workers have increased more quickly than those of salaried workers.
Some solace for higher-paid workers can be found in LinkedIn data, which shows that while hiring rates were still down 10% year-on-year, that number represented an improvement over trends seen throughout much of 2023. .
“The job market is gradually stabilizing,” said Karin Kimbrough, chief economist at LinkedIn wrote in April.
Candidate ratings increase
But stabilization does not mean strength. LinkedIn told NBC News that the number of job applications per candidate increased 14% from November 2023 to March 2024. During the same period, it said, there was a 25% increase in the number of U.S. LinkedIn members who added their “open for work” frame on their profiles, indicating that they are actively looking for work.
“If you’re a high-wage worker right now and you’re sitting on the sidelines, the job search can take some time,” said Vanguard’s Grieg.
Social media platforms are now filled with stories of unemployed workers claiming they have unsuccessfully applied for hundreds of jobs.
Tre Gripper, 32, posted on X this week to say that since being fired in June 2023, he has unsuccessfully applied for approximately 463 vacancies.
“It’s demoralizing,” Gripper said in a later interview with NBC News. “I’ve worked really hard in my field and to continue to achieve nothing – there’s only so much I can continue to do without going into a completely different field.”
Currently residing in Houston, Gripper has supported himself in part thanks to a generous transition bonus and severance package he received from his previous employer.
But those resources have already been exhausted, he said. Now, Gripper and her husband are planning to move to Seattle to continue their careers. And since his post X, which is now linked to her LinkedIn profile, went viral – racking up more than 12 million views – he’s seen an increase in opportunities.
Their conclusion: Subscribing to an online job posting may now be the least effective way to land a job.
“Unless someone is pressuring you, recruiters won’t even see your application,” he said.
This story originally appeared on NBCNews.com read the full story
