NEW YORK — About half of US adults approve Donald Trump’s recent crime convictionaccording to a Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll. The poll shows some potential vulnerabilities, along with some signs of resilience in his support, as Trump seeks to become the first American with a criminal record to win the presidency.
With less than five months to go until election day, the poll paints a picture of a nation with firmly entrenched opinions about the controversial former Republican president. Overviews of Trump and the Democratic President Joe Biden remain unchanged from before the guilty verdict in the Trump case Judgment of Silence in New York.
But the findings also suggest that Trump’s conviction is yet another weakness among disaffected Republicans. Although most people in the United States have heard about the conviction, political independents are less likely to pay attention and are more likely to have a neutral opinion about Trump’s conviction, indicating that there may still be room for campaigns to influence them.
Nancy Hauser, a 74-year-old independent from West Palm Beach, Florida, said she approved of Trump’s conviction based on what little she saw of the trial. The verdict, she said, suggests that Trump might be willing to engage in criminal activity if he were to return to the White House.
“I feel like if you’ve been convicted of a crime, especially a serious crime, how can you govern a country?” she said.
But she also has concerns about Biden, especially his age and leadership on the economy and the war in Israel. Biden is 81 years old, while Trump is 78 on Friday.
“I’m not sure who I’m voting for,” Hauser said. “That’s the sad part.”
Overall, U.S. adults are more likely to approve of Trump’s conviction than to disapprove, according to a survey of 1,115 adults nationwide conducted over three days beginning a week later. the verdict was given May 30, and before Biden’s son Hunter was convicted in a federal gun case on Tuesday.
About 3 in 10 somewhat or strongly disapprove of Trump’s conviction, and about 2 in 10 either do not approve or disapprove. Perspectives were similar among registered voters, with about half saying conviction was the right choice.
Republicans are less united in their verdict than Democrats. About 6 in 10 Republicans somewhat or strongly disapprove of the conviction, while 15% of Republican adults approve and about 2 in 10 Republicans neither approve nor disapprove. Among Democrats, on the other hand, more than 8 in 10 partially or strongly approve.
About half of Americans say the conviction was politically motivated, while a similar percentage think it was not. Nearly half of Republicans who have an unfavorable view of Trump do not see the conviction as politically motivated, compared with fewer than 1 in 10 Republicans who have a positive opinion of him.
General opinions about Trump have barely changed.
About 6 in 10 U.S. adults have an unfavorable opinion of Trump, consistent with study findings AP-NORC survey conducted in February. Four in ten have a favorable view of Trump, also largely unchanged since February.
The numbers are equally weak for Biden: 4 in 10 American adults have a favorable view of the Democratic president, while about 6 in 10 have a negative opinion.
Ron Schwartz, a 59-year-old moderate Republican who lives in Dallas, said Trump was “probably guilty” of the alleged crimes, although Schwartz believes politics was a factor in the case.
He said the charges should not be felonies, a level of crime that bars those convicted from owning guns or voting in many states. Still, Schwartz plans to vote for Trump, as he did in the last two presidential elections, despite having serious concerns about the former president’s character.
“I think he’s a disgusting human being,” Schwartz said. “But he has some good policies and good ideas.”
Independents are split on Trump overall: About 4 in 10 have a positive view, while a similar percentage have a negative view. A plurality – nearly half – did not express a strong opinion on the conviction, saying they neither approved nor disapproved.
Cassi Carey, a 60-year-old independent who lives in suburban Milwaukee, said the conviction did not reflect well on Trump, although she acknowledged he did not pay much attention to the details.
“I think Trump is a terrible choice for our country because of how divisive it is,” Carey said. She also lamented Biden’s advanced age, who turns 82 in November.
“Someday in my life, I really want to be able to vote for a candidate and not against a candidate,” she said.
Overall, Americans are more likely to view Trump’s conviction as bad for the nation.
About 4 in 10 adults describe it as a bad thing for the country overall, while about a third say it was a good thing and about 2 in 10 say it was neither. As for the US democratic system, about 4 in 10 say conviction is a good thing, and about the same percentage consider it a bad thing.
Trump continues to be overwhelmingly hated by Democrats: 9 in 10 Democrats have an unfavorable view of him, with about 8 in 10 saying their opinion is “very unfavorable.”
Democrat Oscar Baza, a 29-year-old Mexican immigrant who lives in Los Angeles, said he approves of Trump’s verdict, which is proof that “the judicial process works as it should.”
“I just think it’s really concerning that he’s on the ballot,” Baza said. “If you’re convicted of 34 counts of anything, you probably shouldn’t lead anything, you should go to therapy.”
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The survey of 1,115 adults was conducted June 7-10, 2024, using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 4.0 percentage points.
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Sanders reported from Washington.
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