Two years after Dobbs, activists look to capitalize on support for abortion rights ahead of November elections

WASHINGTON – Two years after the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade has forced advocates to rethink their messaging on abortion, Democrats are leaning into the issue, hoping to sway enough swing voters to propel President Joe Biden to a second term.

But in a tight election that could be decided on a range of issues, including several that voters rank as more important than abortion, it is unclear whether Democrats can win enough conservative-leaning votes to keep them in the Oval Office.

Nearly 28 million women of reproductive age live in states with partial or full abortion bans, according to Planned Parenthood data provided to NBC News. Several states with partial bans could be decisive for presidential candidates in November, including Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.

Democrats have seen pro-abortion candidates and positions win time and time again in purple and even red states. Now, with less than five months until voters cast their ballots, abortion rights advocates are looking to replicate those successes nationally.

Campaigns work to establish a contrast

Biden laid the blame for Roe’s demise at the feet of former President Donald Trump on Monday, saying in a statement that Trump “is the only person responsible for this nightmare.”

“The consequences have been devastating: in states across the country, Trump’s allies have enacted extreme and dangerous abortion bans – many of them without exceptions for rape or incest – that are putting women’s lives at risk and threatening doctors with prison sentence,” Biden said.

Biden’s re-election campaign is in full force on its second anniversary, hosting dozens of campaign events in swing states. All of the events work to shape the framing of the November election as a decision between a candidate who protects abortion rights and another who will attack it.

First lady Jill Biden toured the vital swing state of Pennsylvania on Sunday, which continues on Monday. Vice President Kamala Harris will hold a campaign event on Monday in Arizona, a state she and the president won by just over 10,000 votes.

The Democratic National Committee also announced it is investing at least $8.3 million this year among state parties, according to a memo shared with NBC News.

The budget marks a 25% increase from 2020 “to ensure voters know about Donald Trump and MAGA Republicans’ attack on reproductive rights,” according to the memo.

In a split-screen moment, Trump embraced his role in the Dobbs v. Wade decision. Jackson on Saturday. He also praised the three Supreme Court justices he nominated — Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett — all of whom spoke out against Roe precedent.

“We did something that was incredible,” Trump said in a speech Saturday before the Christian Faith and Freedom Coalition in Washington, D.C. “The big problem was that it was picked up by the federal government, but the people will decide, and that’s the way it should be .”

Trump has changed his stance on abortion for decades, referring to himself as “very pro-choice” at one point and at another point suggesting that women should be punished for seeking abortions. He also questioned whether he would support a national abortion ban. On Saturday, he repeated that he supports exceptions to abortion in cases of rape or incest or when the woman’s life is at stake.

John Conway, director of strategy for Republican Voters Against Trump, told NBC News that some voters believe Trump “will act wherever it is politically expedient on the issue of abortion.”

“I think some of them definitely took note of the fact that the Trump justices were responsible for overturning Roe v. Wade,” Conway said, referring to conversations he observed in focus groups.

“But I think the Biden campaign needs to continue to raise the importance of this particular point to really defend Donald Trump when it comes to abortion, just because it’s so much harder for him to define what his personal position is. abortion at any time,” he added.

Democrats seek to turn over undecided voters

Abortion has proven to be a galvanizing issue even in red-leaning states. Since the Dobbs ruling, pro-abortion activists have won victories in Ohio, Kentucky, Kansas and other states.

But in a closely contested presidential race, it’s unclear whether Biden will have similar levels of success. An NBC News poll conducted in April found that only 6% of registered voters considered abortion the most important issue facing the country.

Twenty-three percent of voters named inflation as the most important issue, followed by immigration and the situation at the border, threats to democracy, jobs and the economy.

In Engaged’ Swing Voter Project focus groups of North Carolinians who voted for Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020, 11 of 12 participants agreed that abortion would drive a considerable part of their decisions about who to support in November.

“I have a daughter and I’ve been through this experience and I’m a huge advocate for women,” said one of the focus group participants, Michelle, 55, of Candler, North Carolina. “And I think once they take that away, they will come next looking for a whole other set of rights for women.”

But Michelle, whose last name is not mentioned in the focus group, said she would vote for Biden “if that’s the only choice I have,” adding that she wouldn’t be happy about it. Michelle said that in a five-candidate race between Biden, Trump, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West and Jill Stein, she would choose Kennedy.

“The question comes down to what is more unpleasant for them: the Dobbs decision or the prospect of four more years of Biden,” Rich Thau, moderator of the Swing Voter Project, told NBC News. “So if it’s Dobbs’ decision they don’t like anymore, they’ll hold their nose and vote for Biden. If they no longer like Biden, they will tolerate Dobbs’ decision even if they say they oppose it.”

Announcements highlight important cases

Democrats and pro-abortion groups funneled money into clarifying the impact of Dobbs’ decision, and some ads were credited with improving or destroying a candidate’s prospects.

Hadley Duvall was featured in a viral ad for Democratic Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear’s re-election bid last year. In the ad, Duvall told being raped by her stepfather and defended access to abortion.

Beshear won and thanked him in his victory speech. Now, Duvall is speaking out again ahead of the November election.

“If you have a woman in your life who means something to you, her life is at stake” in the election, she said in an MSNBC interview alongside the vice president.

Like Duvall, Amanda Zurawski became a prominent example of the impact of abortion bans after, she says, she nearly died when doctors denied her an abortion when her water broke at 18 weeks.

Zurawski lived in Texas, where abortion is prohibited with few exceptions. Now her parents are speaking out new adverts by the pro-abortion organization Free & Just.

In two announcements, shared first with NBC News, Zurawski’s parents, Mike and Cheri Eid, described feeling like they were “about to lose” their daughter. The couple emphasized that “a national abortion ban would be devastating for all families.”

“You can’t change what happened in their story,” Zurawski’s mother told NBC News. She added that she hopes that by speaking out, “we can change the narrative and change other people’s stories.”

The ad is part of the group’s $1.5 million investment in television and radio advertising in Wisconsin and Ohio.

“Our granddaughter was tortured for three days,” Zurawski’s father told NBC News, referring to when Zurawski was denied an abortion despite suffering extreme complications. “Is this pro-life? Is this compassion?”

In the ad, Zurawski’s parents say they are conservative. Mike Eid told NBC News that he thinks “Republicans need to wake up” on the issue of abortion.

Abortion is an issue that cuts across political parties, said Veronica Ingham, senior campaign director at Free & Just.

“When you see people in your community talking about it, I think it’s easier to relate,” Ingham said. “And I think that’s why having a wide range of messengers is really important.”