Those who wonder who donald trump will choose as his running mate, he won’t have to wait much longer. To the extent that the former president’s assurances reflect reality, the Republican said he intends to make his announcement match his nominating convention — which begins three weeks from now — and he has apparently made his decision.
In fact, the presumptive Republican nominee was asked over the weekend whether he had decided on a pick for vice president. “In my mind, yes,” he repliedalthough he quickly added that the person was not notified.
By this time eight years ago, with two weeks to go until Trump’s first nominating convention, an incredible number of prominent Republican senators and governors, including Senator Marco Rubio from Florida, publicly withdrew from considerationmaking it explicitly clear that they did not want to join Trump’s ticket.
At the time, the future president’s grip on Republican politics was tenuous – many of the party’s powerful saw him as a likely loser – and ambitious Republicans saw value in keeping Trump at arm’s length. Obviously, conditions have changed considerably and vice-presidential hopefuls are tripping over each other in the hope of scoring points with a man who could very well return to the White House within six months.
I’m not going to pretend I have special information about who will get approval, but NBC News reported late last week that the list appears to have shrunk.
O report added that Rubio, who participated an awkward audition“remains in dispute,” although his chances have apparently been compromised by “doubts about his enthusiasm for the job and concerns about how to deal with a constitutional issue that would require Trump or Rubio to establish residency in another state.”
Each member of this trio, in fact, was a former Trump critic who became a Trump sycophant.
Stepping back, part of what makes the so-called “veepstakes” process so interesting is the rarity of the broader circumstances: In American politics, it is extremely unusual for someone to be elevated to national prominence based on the decision of one individual, but that is precisely what that is about to happen.
The 2024 process is also of particular interest because former Vice President Mike Pence is being replaced. (If I were looking for a job and found out that my potential employer endangered life of my predecessor, I would be inclined to withdraw my application.)
But this also seems like a good time to review the three category framework I write about all four years. The way I see it, running mates almost always fall into one of three categories:
A “summer“The running mate is announced at the time of the candidate’s major party convention, and the choice is made to unify a divided party.
A “to fall“The candidacy is made at the same time, but the motivation behind the choice is the general election: candidates choose a “fall” to help them win the presidency.
A “winter“A running mate is one where the presidential candidate expects his vice president to help run the government after Inauguration Day.
I’ve always considered the categories themselves to be value-neutral, and there were good and bad running mates in each group. What’s more, we will occasionally see a running mate who falls into more than one category.
But the chart often helps clarify issues. Lyndon Johnson in 1960 and George HW Bush in 1980, for example, were classic “summer” choices, designed to bring together competing party constituencies. I would say Pence probably belonged in this category as well.
Some recent “fall” picks would likely include John Edwards in 2004, Jack Kemp in 1996, and Sarah Palin in 2008. (Ironically, every one of those tickets was lost.)
As for “winter” running mates, Dick Cheney in 2000 is a classic example, and I would say Joe Biden in 2008 probably falls into the same category.
So what can we expect from Trump? The answer isn’t at all obvious: the presumptive GOP nominee isn’t overly concerned about party unity, despite Nikki Haley’s recent vote totals, and he doesn’t care enough about government to prioritize policymaking. post-elections. This suggests he will make a choice with Election Day considerations in mind, although even at this point Trump appears to be working from the assumption that his success is a given.
We’ll hear back soon, but while we wait, Vice President Kamala Harris recently shared a review with Politico, “What we know is that Donald Trump wants a facilitator. He doesn’t want a partner in government. He doesn’t want another Mike Pence, and I think that’s clear,” said the California Democrat. “The litmus test is: Will they be absolutely loyal to Trump to the country or his oath of office, or, frankly, to the American People?”
Watch this space.
This article was originally published in MSNBC.com
