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The nation enjoyed historically low unemployment under donald trump until the Covid pandemic. The country has also enjoyed low unemployment rates since Joe Biden became president.
But prices have soared since Biden took office. And Trump faced a deep, if brief, recession.
The current and former president debated on Thursday, and an important topic was the one that polls showed is most on voters’ minds: the economy.
“We had the largest economy in the history of our country. We had never done so well,” Trump said, a claim widely contested by economists. The economy grew for more than eight consecutive years in the 1960s and 10 years between the end of 2009 and February 2020.
He claimed that “no one has ever cut taxes like we have,” a debatable claim. President Ronald Reagan led an effort to reduce income tax rates by 25% over three years in the early 1980s. The nonpartisan Tax Policy Center it found that Trump’s 2017 tax cut helped wage earners much more than others.
Trump accused Biden of being responsible for high inflation. Prices soared for several reasons, including a rise in gasoline prices. Biden’s critics charged that massive federal spending to boost the economy also played a role.
Biden had a different view on managing the economy. “The economy collapsed. There were no jobs,” Biden said.
He recalled how unemployment increased during the pandemic. The rate reached 14.8% in April 2020, but recovered quickly and reached 6.4% in January 2021, when Trump left office.
Biden accused Trump of “not doing much” to help the economy. Under Trump, Congress quickly passed the $2.2 billion CARES Act in March 2020, which expanded unemployment benefits and other relief programs.
The law, passed with bipartisan support, was considered crucial in the rapid recovery from the Covid economic crisis.
All the numbers do not offer an easy conclusion about who presided over a more robust economy. It’s a question whose answer largely depends on an individual’s political views and personal experience.
Here’s a guide to figuring it out:
Unemployment
California’s unemployment rate fell slightly to 5.2% last month. Employers added 43,700 jobs, the highest number since October. But the state unemployment rate also remained well above the national average of 4% and was the tallest of the 50 states.
In February 2020, before the pandemic sent the economy reeling, the state rate was a with a seasonal adjustment of 4.4%.
It rose to double digits that spring and was reported as 8.7% when Biden was inaugurated in January 2021.
Inflation
Price increases have slowed dramatically. Prices rose an average of 7.3% in California in 2022, but are expected to rise 3.1% this year, according to the UCLA’s Anderson prediction.
Nationally, prices rose 3.3% pace in the year ending in May, well below the 9.1% in June 2022, the highest rate of increase since November 1981.
During the Trump administration, inflation in California was 3.7% in 2018, its highest annual level during his administration.
Gasoline
California prices have been the highest in the country for some time, peaking at $6.44 per gallon of regular gasoline in mid-June 2022. Thursday, the state average was $4.81, according to AAA.
When Trump took office in January 2017, the average was $2.79 in the state, according to federal data. Energy Information Administration data. Four years later, when Biden took office, the price was $3.21.
Gasoline prices are affected by several factors often beyond the control of US presidents – oil supply, supply and demand, refinery closures and so on.
Housing
In an effort to reduce inflation, the Federal Reserve raised its key interest rate 11 times during the Biden administration. Mortgage rates last week for a 30-year fixed-rate loan averaged 6.87%, according to Freddie Macwhich tracks fees.
The average rate during the week in January 2017 when Trump took office. was 4.09%. During the week of January 2021, when Biden took office, it was 2.77%.
The recent increase in interest rates has not helped housing at all. In May, the California Association of Realtors reported that sales of existing single-family homes fell a seasonally adjusted annualized 6% from the same month last year. The average price in May was $908,040, an increase of 0.4% from April and 8.7% from a year ago.
Although most economic forecasts predict a decline in interest rates later this year, the Fed has not made the rate cuts that had been predicted.
Growth
California’s economy grew at a slightly stronger rate than the nation.
“While there are still challenges ahead, including state and local government funding, homelessness and outmigration, the forces driving California’s economy remain robust,” said Jerry Nickelsburg, director of UCLA. Anderson predicted in his biannual assessment of the state’s situation. economy.
He also issued a huge warning, citing “sectoral weaknesses”.
Other experts also cited layoffs in the technology industry, struggles of many small businesses and a slow recovery in the hospitality sector as factors that could hurt the state’s economy.
Consumer confidence
If consumers don’t spend, the theory goes, workers don’t produce goods and don’t need to provide the same level of services. Consumer confidence in the economy has been shaken lately.
“The drop in consumer confidence has not yet manifested itself in any noticeable retrenchment on the part of consumers, but clearly they are becoming pessimistic again due to the lack of new progress on immigration, inflation and weak government leadership,” said Mark Schniepp, director Based in Santa Barbara California Economic Forecast.
The Conference Board, a New York-based research firm, measures trust every month. Their findings this month were mixed.
“His view of the current situation has improved slightly overall, driven by an increase in sentiment about the current job market, but his assessment of current business conditions has cooled,” chief economist Dana Peterson said in a statement.
