CONSUMED by the drama of our own general election, it would be easy to ignore an even more dramatic shift in power taking place across the Channel.
We are still only half way through the French general elections – there will be a second round next Sunday – but the results of the first round are a good indication of how things are going.
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National Rally, the anti-migration and eurosceptic party that used to be on the racist fringes of French politics but which was “de-demonized” in the last decade by former leader Marine Le Pen, topped the poll with 33 percent of the vote. .
A far-left bloc called the New Popular Front came in second with 28 percent and the centrist Ensemble Alliance – which includes President Emmanuel Macron’s party – came in third with 20 percent.
Drawing an analogy with Britain, it is as if Reform UK has just cruised to victory, with an alliance of the Socialist Workers Party and the Green Party in second place, relegating the Conservatives and Labor to third and fourth place. .
It was so alarming to some that even French football captain Kylian Mbappe took a break from the Euros to warn that “extremists are at the door”.
Fortunately, Harry Kane kept his politics to himself and focused on football.
Calling elections now has turned out to be an even more fatal miscalculation on Macron’s part than early elections in Britain were on Rishi Sunak’s.
Macron’s position is not in danger, as the French Presidency is above Parliament and his term lasts until 2027, but the result will mean that he will have very little influence over French domestic politics and will also have difficulty imposing his own. foreign policy.
Some suspect he may choose to resign rather than continue fighting for another three years.
And to think that Macron called these elections in an attempt to defeat the National Rally after the party triumphed in the European Parliament elections four weeks ago.
He thought it would force voters to come to their senses. Some hope.
However, Macron will not be the only loser in the French elections.
It’s terrible news for the EU elite – and for those remaining Brits who still harbor dreams of Britain returning to the bloc, even if Keir Starmer has ruled out the possibility.
The National Rally is a far cry from the openly racist and anti-Semitic party founded by Le Pen’s father, Jean Marie, in 1972.
Even the standard description of her as “far right” doesn’t make sense. Economically it is on the left.
Opposes Macron’s efforts to put public finances in order by raising the state retirement age from 62 to 64.
Seen in Britain, where the state pension age is already 66 and there is widespread acceptance that it is necessary to raise it to 68 in order to avoid national bankruptcy, the protests may seem a little irrational.
However, Macron’s reforms sparked riots across France last year.
But that’s not the whole story behind the growth of the National Rally. As in Britain, migration is a big problem.
There is also a growing rebellion against EU bureaucracy and free trade.
In January, mass farmers’ protests drew widespread public support from people who believe the EU is undermining the French way of life.
Macron and his city-centric party appear to have little sympathy for ordinary people living in the provinces, whose lives have been made a misery due, among other things, to green taxes.
Furthermore, in contrast to Britain, where euroscepticism and anti-net zero sentiments are often seen as concerns of the elderly and middle-aged, the National Rally has growing support among young people.
Its current leader, Jordan Bardella, who could be Prime Minister of France next week if his party wins the majority of seats, is just 28 years old.
The National Rally no longer advocates “Frexit”, but it has a strategy that should strike more fear into the hearts of the Brussels elite – Le Pen and her followers want to undermine the EU from within.
They want to block their rules on free movement and erect protectionist barriers.
The UK Remainers’ imagination of the EU – the left-liberal paradise they like to try to contrast with what they regard as “narrow-minded” and “xenophobic” Britain – never really existed.
But it is certainly doomed now, with political revolutions in many European countries echoing those in France.
Remarkably, Britain is beginning to stand out as a relative oasis of calm in a troubled Europe.
It is more open to trade and has a more liberal economy and a more flexible labor market than France – and this is unlikely to change much even if Starmer becomes prime minister on Friday.
Even Alistair Campbell recently responded that he wonders whether the EU, as it is evolving, is really something he wants to continue to be a part of.
After all, many other British Remainers may soon come to the conclusion that their country is better off.
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How do French elections work?
By Ellie Doughty
The French public chooses its president and deputies in separate elections – unlike what happens in the United Kingdom, where the country’s leader, the prime minister, is determined by the party that has a majority in parliament.
There are 577 seats – and constituencies – in the French National Assembly.
To obtain an absolute majority in government, a party would need 289 seats.
Parliamentary elections in France are made up of two rounds, the first of which eliminates anyone who fails to obtain 12.5% of the votes in their area.
If any candidate receives more than 50% of the vote in their area and at least a quarter of the local voter group votes, they automatically win a seat.
This doesn’t happen very often, but the RN thinks this time it could happen in dozens of seats.
The second round, for any seats that candidates do not win immediately, is then a series of heats contested by two, three or sometimes four candidates.
Some candidates may withdraw before the runoff on July 7 to give their allies a better chance over another candidate in a three- or four-way race.
French leaders are urging candidates and voters to act tactically to halt the rise of the far right.
But polls show that voters may not be willing to vote tactically and form the so-called “Republican Front” – a united movement to block the National Meeting.
A poll carried out by Odoxa revealed that only 41 percent of voters were willing to vote to block the RN – while around 47 percent would vote to stop the NFP or around 44 percent to stop Together.
This story originally appeared on The-sun.com read the full story
