What is at stake in Sunday’s second round of elections is whether the far-right National Rally will win the majority that would allow it to nominate a prime minister and decide domestic policy or – the more likely outcome – whether the centrists and the left succeed. keep them away, keep them away. France with a suspended Parliament.
Tactical alliances would prevent the far right from implementing a fiercely anti-immigration, pro-working-class domestic agenda, but would likely leave Parliament trapped in political paralysis and damaging inaction.
“Either way, it’s a mess,” says Professor Emeritus Nick Hewlett, an expert on French politics at the University of Warwick in Britain. “Macron’s attempts to govern from the center, without committing to progressive or reactionary policies, have failed miserably, and that is part of what has gotten us here.”
To avoid a humiliating scenario in which his decision gives rise to the first far-right government in France since the Nazi occupation in World War II, Macron broke with his regular alliance with center-right Republicans. to make deals with the left before the second round.
To avoid the division of anti-RN votes, more than 200 candidates have already confirmed that they will not run in the second round, according to estimates from local media.
“The left spoke out immediately and said they were doing this, and the center also spoke out immediately,” said Rainbow Murray, an expert on French politics at Queen Mary University of London in Britain.
“They both come from the same point of view, which is not to help each other, but to stop the far right,” Murray said.
This fueled tensions in the campaign. More than 50 candidates and activists were targeted by physical attacks, including government spokeswoman Prisca Thevenot, whose parents are immigrants from the African island of Mauritius, while posting election posters in a town near Paris on Wednesday night.
Protests have also swept the country as protesters call on voters to speak out against the RN, with marches in the French capital on Wednesday. The French Interior Minister said Thursday that 30,000 police officers will be deployed to voting dayincluding 5,000 in the Paris region.
But amid such tensions, this alliance also appears to be working.
After the first vote, researchers put RN on track for somewhere between 250 and 300 seats, with 289 needed to obtain a majority. But the first poll published after this week’s tactical withdrawals quoted by Reutersprojected that the RN and its allies could only win 190 to 220 seats.
The same poll shows that the leftist alliance New Popular Front and Macron’s centrists could win enough seats to form a coalition, but Macron rejected the option of a coalition that would include the far-left France Insubmissa party, while his prime minister Gabriel Attal also rejected the notion of a multi-party government.
If so, Sunday’s two most likely scenarios present unprecedented challenges for France.
A suspended Parliament creates the possibility of political paralysis and inertia, where parties cooperate through ad hoc alliances, on a case-by-case basis, to pass legislation, depriving France of a functioning government and potentially deepening the sense of disillusionment already felt by large sectors. of the electorate.
This will not only affect France’s internal policies, but could also stifle its international presence in the European Union and neutralize its most important leaders on the global stage.
Alternatively, France finds itself with an anti-immigrant, Eurosceptic government that promises to “put France back on its feet” by giving French citizens “national preference” over immigrants for jobs and housing, while abolishing the right to automatic French citizenship for children of foreign parents and banning citizens with dual nationality from “sensitive strategic posts”.
RN’s opposition to the European Union and its historical proximity to Russia amid the war in Ukraine it raises questions not only about the future of France, but also that of Europe. RN President Jordan Bardella hit back at allegations that his party is friends with Russia, calling the nation a “multidimensional threat” to Europe and saying he supports the continued supply of French weapons to Ukraine, but that if opposes the sending of long-range missiles capable of hitting targets in Russia.
Regardless of the outcome, says Hewlett, the RN will likely claim a victory as the largest coherent party, emboldening the far right, who will “feel entitled to govern sooner or later”.
An Ipsos poll that interviewed more than 10,000 voters showed that the RN enjoys substantial support among voters of all ages, with growing support among young French people. The majority of those who identify as “disadvantaged” also overwhelmingly supported the RN.
His popularity is a devastating rebuke to Macron’s policies, which once galvanized youth and promised change.
And even if the RN wins a modest 190 seats, that would represent a surprising increase for a party that won just eight seats in 2017.
“It’s a win for them no matter what,” Hewlett said.
This story originally appeared on NBCNews.com read the full story
