The next fortnight has all the ingredients to have historic consequences.
We can expect big announcements on Ukraine from NATO leaders meeting in Washington. We’ll find out who Donald Trump’s running mate will be and watch President Biden fight for his political life.
The consequences of president bidenThe disastrous performance of the debate a little over a week ago continues. At first glance, he insists that he will remain the candidate, but the truth is that the next few days seem to be decisive for him.
Don’t believe anyone who tells you they know what will happen… but here are some scenarios.
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Late Sunday, Democratic Party congressional leaders met with their rank-and-file members to canvass opinion on whether to double down on candidate Biden or formally ask for his resignation.
As they coalesce around a decision this week, all eyes will be on the president when he hosts the annual NATO summit in Washington, the largest event of its kind in three decades.
The leaders of 30 nations will be in the American capital. It is the perfect setting for the president to show that he has what it takes.
But the risks of making mistakes, which underline cognitive decline, are enormous. Remember the G7 meeting just a few weeks ago. Back then, when the videos became memes of a president who apparently didn’t quite agree, White House staff reacted with dismissive anger. Then came the debate debacle, which confirmed the concerns.
You can be sure that all leaders will be asked their opinion on the American president’s performance.
It seems inconceivable that there will be any overt pressure to force Biden out of office before Thursday, when the NATO summit ends. Humiliation is not the goal here.
But after the NATO president’s press conference, in which his performance will be his final test, decisions about his future are likely to come together. It is said here that Friday is a key day.
However, there is no roadmap for changing horses at this point in a career. The American system does not consist of a party structure that can oust a leader. It’s Joe Biden’s decision.
Biden vows to stay in the race
His prime-time interview on ABC News last Friday was free of gaffes, but it hardly calmed the Democratic Party’s panic. He was defiant.
“If the Lord Almighty came and said, ‘Joe, get out of the race,’ I would get out of the race.” he told ABC anchor George Stephanopoulos. “But the Lord Almighty does not come down.”
Beyond the Almighty, the real-world pressure will consist of overwhelming public unrest on the part of his party, evidence of disastrous new polls against Trump, and, most importantly, a change of mind within his own inner circle: his wife Jill, his sister Valerie, his son Hunter and his closest political advisors.
Everyone supports him and supports his belief that he is mentally sharp and that only he can defeat Donald Trump. Call it arrogance, stubbornness, denialism or conviction; For now he remains.
So what’s next if the pressure becomes too much or if the Almighty calls?
The most dramatic option would be for President Biden to resign as a candidate and also as president this month.
The president has spoken before of “come to Jesus” moments. Perhaps this is his: a sudden realization and recognition that the path is prepared for him.
Right now it is a huge leap to imagine this happening but, as extraordinary and inconceivable as it may seem, don’t rule it out.
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It is arguably the most logical and cleanest way the party can move forward into the election if the consensus is that President Biden cannot win and should not run.
Kamala Harris, the vice president, would be sworn in as president and become the Democratic Party’s candidate for the November election. Importantly, this would allow him to run as a proven starter. She would choose a new running mate.
There is a key financial consideration that supports this option. The millions of dollars of campaign finance in the Democratic Party coffers are allocated to the Biden-Harris campaign. So only Kamala Harris has automatic access to these funds.
This option raises questions about how electable Harris is. If it looks like an aging President Biden will lose to Trump, well, how much better are Harris’ chances?
Certainly, polls put Harris-Trump closer than Biden-Trump. The Trump team’s campaign attacks on Harris suggest they view her as a threat.
The other option would be for President Biden to remain president but remain on the sidelines as a 2024 candidate.
The question then is whether Kamala Harris becomes the candidate or whether a new, not-yet-approved candidate is chosen through a mini-primary process at the Democratic Party convention to be held in Chicago in August.
This would be complicated, and the optics of sidelining African-American candidate heir apparent Harris for someone else would be controversial.
A showdown at the August convention would also undoubtedly spark infighting among those who might want the job. There would also be complex funding issues, given the rules on the Biden-Harris money pool.
All options carry enormous political risk for the Democratic Party and will ensure that the focus is on them and not the existential threat they see in Trump.
What a mess the Democratic Party has created.
This story originally appeared on News.sky.com read the full story
