Is America in decline? | TIME

AAs election year politics heat up, Donald Trump proclaims he can “Make America Great Again” and Joe Biden promises a better future, but most Americans tell pollsters they think the U.S. is in decline. In 1941, on the eve of World War II, Time/Life proclaimed “the American Century” and by 1945 the US was the pre-eminent global power. But after eight decades, is it over?

Americans have a long history of worrying about our decline. Shortly after the founding of the Massachusetts Bay Colony in the 17th century^th century, some Puritans lamented the decline of former virtue. At 18^th century, the founding fathers focused on the history of Rome and worried about the decline of the new American republic. No 19^th century, Charles Dickens observed that if we listen to its citizens, America “is always in an alarming crisis, and never has been otherwise.”

One problem in assessing the decline is that the US never had the total control that some imagine. Even when the US had preponderant resources, it often couldn’t get what it wanted. Let us remember a year like 1956, when the US was unable to stop the Soviet suppression of an uprising in Hungary; The French loss of Vietnam or the invasion of Suez by our allies Britain, France and Israel? We must be careful about viewing the past through rose-colored glasses.

Episodes of “declinism” tell us more about popular psychology than geopolitical analysis, but they also show how the idea of ​​decline touches on a sensitive point in American politics. The issue will lead to countless accusations and denials in this election year. Sometimes anxiety about decline can lead to nationalist and protectionist policies that do us more harm than good. On the other hand, periods of arrogance like 2002 can cause harm from bad policies, like the Iraq War. There is no virtue in underestimating or exaggerating American power.

When it comes to geopolitics, it is important to distinguish between absolute and relative decline. In this sense, America has been in decline since 1945, when it represented half the world economy and had a monopoly on nuclear weapons (which the Soviet Union broke in 1949). World War II strengthened the US economy while weakening others. As the rest of the world recovered, the US share of world output fell to a quarter of the total by 1970. President Nixon interpreted this as a decline and removed the dollar from the gold standard. But the dollar remains pre-eminent half a century later, and the American share of world output remains at about a quarter (as it was on the eve of World War II). And the “decline” did not prevent the US from triumphing in the Cold War.

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American fears of decline and social change have been cyclical. After the Soviets launched Sputnik in 1957 and Khrushchev proclaimed his superiority, many Americans believed the Eisenhower administration was stagnant and the United States was in decline. After the arrogance and defeat in Vietnam, the 1970s were also marked by decline. In 1979, an important American magazine cover featured a photo of the Statue of Liberty with a tear running down her eyes. However, just over a decade later, the Soviet Union collapsed and the US entered the arrogant “sole superpower” period.

Where do we go from here? No one can be sure, but I tried to guess the answer in my memories, A Life in the American Century. Here’s how it ends:

What kind of world am I leaving for my grandchildren and their “Gen Z”? Is the American century over? I conclude that the answer is “no,” but that American primacy in this century will not resemble that of the 20th century. I argued that the greatest danger we face is not that China will overtake us, but that the diffusion of power at home and abroad could produce entropy, or the inability to accomplish anything.

China is an impressive competitor, with great strengths but also weaknesses. When assessing the global balance of power, the US has at least five long-term advantages. One of them is geography. The US is surrounded by two oceans and two friendly neighbors, while China shares borders with fourteen other countries and is involved in territorial disputes with several. The US also has an energy advantage, while China relies on energy imports. Third, the US derives its power from its large transnational financial institutions and the international role of the dollar. A credible reserve currency depends on being freely convertible, as well as deep capital markets and the rule of law, which China lacks. The USA also has a relative demographic advantage, being the only large developed country currently expected to maintain its place (third) in the world population rankings. Seven of the world’s fifteen largest economies will have shrinking workforces over the next decade, but the U.S. workforce is expected to increase, while China’s peaked in 2014. Finally, America has been on the cutting edge in key technologies (bio, nano and information). ). China, of course, is investing heavily in research and development and has good results in the number of patents, but by its own measures its research universities still lag behind their American counterparts.

In total, the US has a strong hand in great power competition, but if we succumb to hysteria about China’s rise or complacency about its “peak,” we could play our cards badly. Discarding high-value cards – including strong alliances and influence in international institutions – would be a serious mistake. China is not an existential threat to the US unless we make it a threat by going into a major war. The historical analogy that concerns me is 1914, not 1941.

My biggest concern, however, is with internal changes and what they might do to our soft power and the future of the American century. Even if its external power remains dominant, a country may lose its internal virtue and attractiveness to others. The Roman Empire lasted long after it lost its republican form of government. As Benjamin Franklin observed of the form of American government created by the founders: “A republic, if you can keep it.” Political polarization is a problem and civic life is becoming more complex. Technology is creating a huge range of opportunities and risks that my grandchildren will face as they grapple with the Internet of Things, AI, big data, machine learning, deep fakes and generative bots – to name a few. just a few. And even bigger challenges are looming in the field of biotechnology, not to mention how to deal with climate change.

Some historians have compared today’s flow of ideas and connections to the turbulence of the Renaissance and Reformation five centuries ago, but on a much larger scale. And these eras were followed by the Thirty Years’ War, which killed a third of Germany’s population.

Today, the world is richer and riskier than ever. I am sometimes asked if I am optimistic or pessimistic about the future of this country. I respond: “Cautiously optimistic.”

America has many problems – polarization, inequality, loss of trust, mass shootings, drug deaths of despair, and suicide – just to name a few that make headlines. There are reasons for pessimism. At the same time, we survived worse periods in the 1890s, 1930s, and 1960s, as I have described. For all our flaws, the United States is an innovative society that, in the past, has been able to recreate and reinvent itself. Maybe Gen Z can do it again. I hope so. We should be careful about relying too much on American exceptionalism, but my cautious optimism is captured in this account of what it was like to live through the first eight decades of the American century.