DETROIT — When President Joe Biden held a rally here last week and soaked up the adoration of supporters, several prominent Michigan Democrats joined him — with one notable exception: Rep. Elissa Slotkin, the party’s leading candidate in a race mandatory for the Senate.
The rally came amid an intraparty dispute over whether Biden should remain the Democratic nominee or step aside after a disconcerting debate performance and opinion polls saying he narrowly trails Donald Trump nationally and in key states. Slotkin said only that the decision is up to Biden; Her campaign said she had a scheduling conflict and was unable to attend.
“We’ve been saying since day one that this would be one of the closest Senate races in the country,” said Slotkin campaign spokesman Antoine Givens. “That’s why we’re building a grassroots campaign prepared to make clear the contrast between Elissa’s record of results for middle-class Michiganders and any of her Republican opponents.”
Slotkin’s absence from Biden’s rally comes amid unease among low-voting Democrats, who party strategists believe will overtake Biden but fear he could drag them down. But vote-splitters—those who vote for a different party for president and for lesser-voted candidates—are a dwindling breed. In dozens of Senate races during the last two presidential elections, only one state delivered a split result: Maine in 2020 voted for Biden and centrist Republican Senator Susan Collins. Not a single state split the vote in 2016.
“There are definitely vote dividers,” said Abby Clark, a Democratic organizer and former campaign adviser in Detroit who is calling on Biden to drop out of the race. “But in general, these tides rise and fall together. Michigan is always very tight. A real collapse in support at the top of the list will have a huge impact on all other races.”
“Even with Slotkin as president – how much progress is possible?” Clark said. “There is intense fear about the situation we find ourselves in and what it means.”
Democratic candidates are outperforming Biden
Polls taken before and after the June 27 debate paint a consistent picture: Democratic Senate candidates in key states are doing well and largely lead their GOP rivals, while Biden is in a tie with or behind Trump. him with the same set of voters. In some more recent polls, Biden has underperformed other Democrats by 5 points, into double digits.
In Michigan, a recent EPIC-MRA survey found Biden trailing Trump by 3 points, while Slotkin led Senate Republican leader and former congressman Mike Rogers by 2 points — both within the margin of error.
Although Slotkin maintains some distance from Biden, Rogers has embraced his party’s candidate, promising at this week’s Republican convention to “fight alongside Donald Trump” if elected. Rogers spokesman Chris Gustafson linked Slotkin to Biden, saying, “With all the trouble Joe Biden has caused working Michigan families, his debate performance should be the least embarrassing thing about Elissa Slotkin still supporting him.” .
Biden dismissed fears that he could hurt the ticket, pointing to Democrats’ superior performance in the 2022 midterms and special elections since taking office. His campaign predicted that the party would win at the polls.
“Led by Joe Biden, the Democrats have an incredible agenda to execute. Republicans every day of this cycle are forced to answer for their support of banning abortion, sending jobs overseas and undermining our democracy,” Biden campaign spokeswoman Mia Ehrenberg told NBC News . “This election, whether primary or statewide, will be decided on the issues that matter most to voters, which is why Democrats will win in November.”
Still, Democrats like Slotkin cannot afford to abandon Biden entirely, at the risk of upsetting the large number of base voters who still passionately support him and demand that members of their party do the same. At Biden’s rally in Detroit, some voters praised Slotkin and said she should be given room to run, but others said they would look down on candidates who are disloyal to the president.
Deanna Zapico, a Biden supporter who attended the rally Friday from Royal Oak, Michigan, praised Slotkin.
“Love her. She’s a very strong candidate,” Zapico said, adding that he trusts Slotkin’s judgment about not campaigning with Biden. “If she needs to do this, then she needs to do this. That’s a good thing. It could help— there if she were here.
But Lakshmi Vadlamudi, a rally attendee from Franklin, Michigan, said she is “extremely angry” with Democrats calling on Biden to withdraw from the race.
Slotkin made no such call, telling The Detroit News that she is soliciting voters’ opinions on the issue.
Asked about Slotkin skipping the rally in Detroit, Vadlamudi said she “will be skeptical of anyone” in the election races who doesn’t support the president, saying such appeals only weaken the party.
‘A dramatic drop in Biden’s numbers’ since 2020
In Pennsylvania, a New York Times/Siena article survey found Biden trailing Trump by 3 points (within the margin of error), while Democratic Senator Bob Casey led Republican rival David McCormick by 8 points among likely voters (outside the margin).
Asked why he believes he is outperforming Biden in Pennsylvania polls, Casey told NBC News: “It’s very early, so people haven’t focused.”
He added that he prefers to “not analyze” the polls and just defend his position as a candidate. “We’re in a tough race,” Casey said.
In Wisconsin, a bipartisan Fabrizio/Impact survey found Biden trailing Trump by 6 points, while Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin led Republican rival Eric Hovde by 5 points, both within the margin of error.
In an even clearer example, a Times/Siena report survey of Democratic-leaning Virginia found Biden ahead of Trump by just 3 points (within the margin of error), while Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine edged GOP opponent Hung Cao by 17 points.
That leaves a few possible scenarios in the three and a half months until Election Day. One is that the “double haters” of both presidential candidates return to Biden and their numbers increase closer to the other Democratic candidates. Another is that Biden is an anvil dragging down low-voting Democrats. And the third is that the picture largely holds and 2024 produces the most widespread ticket split in more than a decade.
Jessica Taylor, who oversees Senate races for nonpartisan analyst Cook Political Report, said the disparity is due to declining support for Biden. Cook recently changed the rating of the Michigan Senate race from “lean Democrat” to “fire.”
“We haven’t seen Trump’s numbers change much since 2020. What we saw was a dramatic drop in Biden’s numbers,” Taylor said. “Look at the debate and the freeze – I completely understand why the Democratic Senate candidates don’t want to be there with Biden.”
This story originally appeared on NBCNews.com read the full story
