As Joe Biden withdraws from the 2024 US presidential race and Kamala Harris gains support from prominent Democrats, Betfair Exchange data indicates her odds are improving.
However, the vice president still faces a significant challenge in overtaking Donald Trump, who has maintained a strong performance for almost the past year.
One day before Biden dropped out of the presidential racehe was 57 percentage points behind Trump according to Betfair betting odds data.
Trump’s chances of winning were 64%, with Biden at 7% and Harris at 17%.
At the start of the 2024 Republican National Convention, a few days after The attempted assassination of Mr. Trumphis chances were 69%.
After Biden dropped out of the race on Sunday, Trump’s chances of winning had fallen to 62%.
When Biden endorsed Harris on Sunday, her chances increased by six percentage points to 23% and as more endorsements come in from top Democrats today, her chances have increased to 29%, the highest on record for the incumbent vice president, but still 33%. points behind Trump.
Interestingly, Harris’ chances of victory were higher than those of Biden and Trump in 2021.
Biden’s numerous gaffes, from portraying Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as Vladimir Putin to rambling and backbiting in the first debate of the presidential season, have meant that Trump has enjoyed a particularly high lead over the incumbent US president. during the last month.
Since early July 2024, Trump’s lead over Biden according to bookmakers has consistently been 40 percentage points or more. Since July 5, it has been at least 50 percentage points.
Trump has been consistently ahead of Biden since the time of the impeachment investigation of the current president in September 2023, with the exception of three days in April 2024, where Biden’s chances were less than a percentage point better than Trump’s.
That period covers the time before Trump’s criminal trial, although on May 30, when he was finally found guilty, he had a lead over Biden by two percentage points.
Biden’s biggest lead over Trump was on June 7, 2023, when he was 18 percentage points ahead.
Several of Biden’s major clues about Trump occurred in June 2023, around the time accusations were made against Trump.
One was presented on March 30, another on June 8 that was dismissed and two more in August that are still to be decided.
He was pleaded guilty for all counts of falsifying business records related to the March 30 indictment.
However, this did not significantly affect his lead, likely due to growing concerns about Biden’s fitness to remain in office, which ultimately led to his withdrawal from the race.
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