WASHINGTON – Suddenly it is Kamala Harris ‘economy – a huge opportunity as well as a possible risk for the likely Democratic presidential nominee.
Shortly after President Joe Biden left the race a week ago, Harris began create your own narrative across the economy, placing an emphasis on eradicating child poverty, promoting unions, reducing health and child care costs, and protecting “dignity” in retirement.
Not once in speeches in Wisconsin, Indiana or Texas Did she mention the word “inflation” — the crushing economic challenge that has dogged the Biden administration and forced him, in remarks, to consistently acknowledge voters’ pain as they grapple with higher expenses for food, gasoline, housing and automobiles?
Harris is placing a higher priority on what she says could happen.
“In our vision of the future, we see a place where every person has the opportunity not just to survive, but to thrive – a future where no child has to grow up in poverty, where every elderly person can retire with dignity, and where every worker has the freedom to join a union,” Harris told the American Federation of Teachers on Thursday.
But Republicans moved quickly to try to blame Harris for the inflation they until recently blamed on Biden. They are emphasizing the cumulative impact of high prices under the Democratic administration.
Labor Department data shows consumer prices have increased 19.2% since Biden took office, while average hourly earnings have increased 16.9%.
Republican Party leaders openly say that Harris contributed to inflation, without specifying how she managed to do this other than by being vice president.
“Vice President Harris has the track record of this administration,” said Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky. “Your fingerprints are on the last four years of failure.”
Former and current officials who worked with Harris said in interviews that there is an expectation that criticism of inflation will not reach her because, for many voters, she represents a fresh voice after nearly eight years with Republican Donald Trump or Biden in the Oval Office. .
Now it’s time for Harris to state her own policy positions on economic issues.
Some of those officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to publicly discuss political issues, said Harris would likely remain aligned with Biden’s 2025 budget proposal and his plan to raise the corporate tax rate to 28% starting of 21.% set by Trump’s 2017 tax overhaul.
Her emergence as a Democratic candidate coincided with positive economic news.
The Commerce Department said Thursday that the economy grew at an annual rate of 2.8% in the second quarter. On Friday, it reported that the personal consumption expenditure inflation measure decreased to 2.5% annually, with financial markets now expecting an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve in September.
Those who have known Harris for years say her work as a prosecutor in California has made a sense of justice central to her economic policy ideas.
“She’s a capitalist at heart — she wants businesses to do well,” said Yasmin Nelson, a former senior adviser to Harris. “But she recognizes that the scales tipped toward them during the Trump administration. In her opinion, she wants to level the playing field.”
Trump and his running mate, Senator JD Vance, Republican of Ohio, are focused on portraying Harris as more liberal than Biden, suggesting that the former California senator would further restrict the use of fossil fuels in favor of solar energy, wind and other renewable energies. sources.
Trump, in a rally in North Carolina on Wednesdaycalled Harris “the most incompetent, far-left vice president in American history.”
Vance went after his policies in an interview Friday on Megyn Kelly’s SiriusXM show.
“We cannot allow people who will destroy the American industrial and energy economy to take the reins of power,” Vance said. “It will be much worse when you include someone even more liberal than Biden.”
The Trump campaign quickly revived Harris’ statements about her short-lived bid for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination. She said on CNN at the time that she was in favor of banning plastic straws, offshore oil drilling and the use of fracking for oil and natural gas, a controversial position in the swing state of Pennsylvania.
Republican lawmakers also say Harris would raise taxes, which is just what Biden’s 2025 budget plan would do for the wealthiest families and businesses.
Harris’ campaign has said she does not support a ban on fracking. During the 2020 vice presidential debateshe emphasized several times that Biden would not end fracking.
The Energy Information Administration shows that both natural gas and oil production rose to record levels during Biden’s presidency, following a pandemic-driven drop. But the Biden administration’s policies are more restrictive than the Republican Party wants.
The biggest risk for Harris could be how persistent inflation shapes voters’ views on the economy. Many economic models used by financial companies to analyze elections are based on the party of the incumbent and not the candidate himself, in this case.
Consultancy Oxford Economics said in an analysis on Monday that the odds favored Trump. The forecast is based on models that use economic data. It doesn’t necessarily take into account social issues like abortion and gun control that Democrats say will help them in the election.
The analysis highlighted that there is a high degree of uncertainty and noted that a lot could happen in the coming months, although it is quite simple to conclude that inflation is still an obstacle for the vice president.
“I doubt Harris will significantly change the way swing voters think about the economy,” said Bernard Yaros, an economist at Oxford Economics. “She still carries the same baggage from presiding over the high inflation of 2021 and 2022. Like Biden, her approval took a hit during the rise in inflation.”
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