Welcome to the online version of From the Policy Deska nightly newsletter that brings you the latest reporting and analysis from the NBC News politics team on the campaign, the White House and Capitol Hill.
In today’s edition, Senior Political Editor Mark Murray looks at the growing gender gap in the polls in the race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. Plus, we report how vice presidential candidate and Kentucky governor Andy Beshear’s stance on abortion rights is being scrutinized again.
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Gender gap widens in Harris-Trump contest
By Mark Murray
A series of decisive national and state polls since President Joe Biden2024’s withdrawal from the race was met with a much tighter contest than we saw following his dismal debate performance.
But these polls reveal another important dynamic: a huge gender disparity between the former President donald trump and Vice President Kamala Harris – in some cases higher than in 2016 and 2020.
Get the recent New York Times/Siena College Survey. Harris holds a 14-point lead over Trump among likely female voters (55% to 41%), while Trump holds a 17-point lead among men (56% to 39%). This represents a net gender gap of 31 points.
It is even greater in recent Quinnipiac University Research, where women are trailing Harris by 16 points (56% to 40%) and men are on Trump’s side by 23 points (60% to 37%). (Note: The Quinnipiac poll was conducted before and after Biden dropped out of the 2024 race.) That’s a whopping 39-point gender gap.
Compare that to the race between Trump and Hillary Clinton in 2016, when the NBC News exit poll found that the net gender gap in 24 points. In the exit poll following the 2020 Biden-Trump contest, that number was 23 points.
Now, other recent surveys show a smaller gender gap. CNN national poll had 16 points between Harris and Trump, and one of NPR/PBS/Marist there were only 4 points.
And remember, these types of in-depth demographic analyzes have larger margins of error – so numbers tend to fluctuate from survey to survey.
But overall, these new polls underscore how the widening gender gap could be a significant factor in the new Harris-Trump race — and also how Trump’s lead among men appears larger than Harris’s lead among women.
Veepstakes: Beshear’s Abortion Record Gets New Scrutiny
By Adam Edelman, Yamiche Alcindor, Amanda Terkel, Sahil Kapur, Alex Seitz-Wald
One of the governors of Kentucky. Andy BeshearTrump’s strength in the race to become Harris’ running mate is that he could appeal to centrist voters as a Democrat who won re-election in a state that Donald Trump carried by more than 20 percentage points.
Beshear won his 2023 campaign, in part, because leaning on his support for abortion rights in a state where the procedure is almost completely prohibited. However, for some reproductive rights advocates in Kentucky, Beshear has not done enough on an issue that is critical to the party nationally – which could influence his chances of joining the presidential ticket.
“The low bar here doesn’t help him,” said Savannah Trebuna, director of the abortion fund at the Kentucky Health Justice Network, a reproductive rights organization based in Louisville, referring to expectations for a Democratic governor in a red state.
“Yes, he’s doing better than a conservative would, and I’m grateful for that,” she continued. “But I worry about how this record will look on the national scene.”
Critics point to Beshear’s choice of a self-described “personally pro-life” Democrat, Jacqueline Coleman, to be his lieutenant governor; her focus on rare exceptions when talking about abortion; and that her administration has avoided working closely with reproductive rights groups in the state.
During his first gubernatorial campaign in 2019, Beshear’s allies clashed behind the scenes with reproductive rights groups over what message to run in ads, with Beshear’s team wanting to focus less on abortion and more on the unpopular Republican candidate, according to with a source involved in the effort.
The question is whether Beshear’s approach would serve as a disadvantage by confusing the Democrats’ message, or as a benefit by having a governor who won on this issue in a red state.
“I think everyone is looking for the perfect candidate. There is no such thing,” said former Rep. John Yarmuth, D-Ky. “The voters who are persuaded right now are not important voters. If you are a problem voter, you have already made up your mind. They are more visceral voters, and that’s why I think Andy has great strength — because he reeks of empathy.”
More on Harris’ running mate search:
Today’s top news
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Press in full court: Biden has called for a series of Supreme Court reforms, including an 18-year term limit for justices, stricter ethics rules and a constitutional change declaring that former presidents are not immune from criminal charges.
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FBI Update: An FBI official told reporters that Trump agreed to participate in an interview with a victim about his assassination attempt, and the agency’s investigation has not yet determined the shooter’s motive.
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Who is Timothy Mellon? The New York Times takes a deep dive into Timothy Mellon, the mysterious billionaire who spent tens of millions to boost Trump and Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
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Combating ‘deep fakes’: The Federal Communications Commission is proposing a first-of-its-kind rule to mandate the disclosure of AI-generated content in political ads, though it may not take effect before the election.
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Iowa Abortion Ban: A new law in Iowa that bans most abortions after six weeks of pregnancy took effect Monday.
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Crypto Talk: Trump spoke at the annual Bitcoin Conference over the weekend, promising to make America “the crypto capital of the planet and the bitcoin superpower of the world.”
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Buying Homes in Nevada Battlefield: NBC News’ Shannon Pettypiece investigates the challenges facing potential homebuyers in Washoe County, Nevada, a key county in a crucial battleground state.
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Endorsements throughout: Trump is hedging his bets in a competitive GOP primary in Arizona ahead of Tuesday’s election. After initially supporting Republican Abe Hamadeh for a House seat, Trump also backed one of Hamadeh’s main opponents, Blake Masters.
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