NEWAYGO, Michigan – Although Michigan remains one of the crown jewels of the fall presidential campaignThe focus Tuesday turns to state primaries that could play a major role in deciding control of the closely divided U.S. Senate and House, as well as the state legislature.
At the top of the list of races is the race to replace Democratic U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow, who announced in January that she would not seek a fifth term. The Democratic primary features a three-term U.S. Representative. Elissa Slotkin and actor and small business owner in Detroit Harper Hill.
Slotkin has kept her Lansing-area swing district in Democratic hands by small margins since her first election in 2018. She won her current 7th Congressional District with just 52% of the vote in 2022, her highest vote share in her three campaigns. She won a similar district in 2018 and 2020 with less than 51% of the vote.
If she wins the primary as expected, she will face another tough contest against the presumptive Republican nominee, former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers, who is seeking to end his party’s 24-year drought in U.S. Senate races in Michigan. The former chairman of the House Intelligence Committee and former CNN host launched its campaign in September and since then diluted the Republican primary field as the state’s party establishment rallied behind him. Rogers’ main remaining opponents include former U.S. Representative Justin Amash, best known for voting to impeach President Donald Trump and for leaving the Republican Party to become an independent and then a libertarian. Also running is Sherry O’Donnell, a doctor and former congressional candidate.
Slotkin enjoys a considerable financial advantage in the race. She has raised and accumulated more campaign funds than the rest of the Democratic and Republican camps combined.
Running to replace Slotkin in the 7th Congressional District are Democrat Curtis Hertel and Republican Tom Barrett, both former state senators. Both are uncontested in their party nominations. Voters in the 7th District narrowly supported Republican Trump in 2016 and Democrat Joe Biden in 2020.
Other Michigan congressional seats that could decide control of the U.S. House in November are in the 3rd, 8th and 10th districts, all of which were up for primaries on Tuesday.
In the Grand Rapids-based 3rd District in western Michigan, Republicans Paul Hudson and Michael Markey are vying for the nomination to challenge Democratic U.S. Rep. Hillary Scholten, who is the front-runner in her primary. Democrat Hillary Clinton barely edged Trump among 3rd District voters in 2016, while Biden won more handily in 2020.
In the 8th District, which includes Flint and Saginaw, three Democrats and three Republicans are running to replace Democratic U.S. Rep. Dan Kildee, who is not seeking a seventh term.
In the 10th District, which includes most of Macomb and part of Oakland counties in Detroit’s northern suburbs, Democrat Carl Marlinga is hoping for a rematch against first-term Republican U.S. Rep. John James, but must first defeat three others candidates for your party. appointment. James surpassed Marlinga in the 2022 elections, 48.8% to 48.3%. Voters in the 10th District slightly preferred Trump in the 2016 and 2020 elections. Macomb is home to a type of swing voter often referred to as Reagan Democrats.
Voters across the state will also choose nominees in 67 contested state House primaries. Democrats won a narrow majority of both chambers of the state legislature in the 2022 midterm elections. All 110 seats in the state House will be up for grabs in November. State Senate seats will not be up for election until 2026.
Here’s a look at what to expect on Tuesday:
The Michigan state primary will be held on Tuesday. The last polls close at 9pm ET, although most of the state closes at 8pm ET. All polls close at 8pm local time.
The Associated Press will provide voting results and declare winners in the contested primaries for U.S. Senate, U.S. House and state House.
Michigan has an open primary system, meaning any registered voter can participate in any party’s primary.
The top vote-rich counties in Michigan’s state elections are Wayne (home to Detroit), Oakland, Macomb, Kent (home to Grand Rapids), Genesee (home to Flint), and Washtenaw (home to Ann Arbor).
In the U.S. Senate Republican primary, Rogers is the front-runner, but he could perform particularly well in the areas he represented in Congress. This generally covered the Republican portions of Oakland County, as well as the Republican areas roughly between Detroit, Lansing, and Flint. He lives in southwest Michigan.
Detroit-area businessman Sandy Pensler dropped out of the race in July but will still appear on the ballot. He received 45% of the vote in the 2018 U.S. Senate primary against James. Pensler carried most of northern Michigan and the eastern third of the Upper Peninsula. His exit from the race should benefit Rogers, whom he supported.
The Associated Press does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it is determined that there is no scenario that would allow the second-place candidates to close the gap. If a race is not called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or victory declarations. In doing so, the AP will make it clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.
Recounts are automatic in statewide races in Michigan if the margin between the top two candidates is 2,000 votes or less. Candidates can request and pay for a recount regardless of the vote margin, and the state covers the costs if the recount changes the result. State party chairs can request recounts for state legislative races if the margin is less than 500 votes in state Senate races and less than 200 votes in state House races. The AP may declare a winner in a race eligible for recount if it can determine that the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the result. A new recount law signed by Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer in July will not take effect until after the 2024 presidential election.
As of July 9, there were about 8.3 million registered voters in Michigan.
In the 2022 midterm primaries, turnout was about 12% of registered voters in the Democratic primary and 13% in the Republican primary. About 55% of voters in the 2022 midterm primary and about 35% of voters in the 2024 presidential primary were elected before primary day.
On Thursday, a total of 870,2307 ballots were cast before primary day.
In the 2022 midterm primaries, the AP first reported the results at 8:13 p.m. ET, or 13 minutes after the first polls closed. Election night counting ended at 4:05 a.m. ET, with about 96% of the total votes counted.
As of Tuesday, there will be 91 days until the November general election.
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Follow AP’s coverage of the 2024 elections at https://apnews.com/hub/election-2024.
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