In what was probably the most decisive moment of the 2019 campaign, with support for his Brexit Party already falling in the polls, Nigel Farage announced that he was withdrawing his party’s candidates from all the seats that the Conservatives defended. Support for the party declined further as almost all Leave voters backed Boris Johnson’s call to “get Brexit done”.
Now, Mr Farage intervened decisively again. With support for Reform holding steady in the first few campaigns – and with no sign of any discernible increase in Conservative support – this time he managed brought news to the Conservatives that they won’t want to hear.
Not only did he change his mind about running for election, but he also took office Ricardo Tice as reform leader. As a result, Rishi Sunak’s first key task in this election campaign – winning over the many 2019 Tory voters who have since defected to Reform – now looks much more difficult.
Previous polls have suggested that voters would be more likely to opt for Reform if Farage returned as their leader. Such hypothetical research should always be treated with caution. However, Farage is a charismatic politician who is participating in a contest in which that quality is in short supply. He certainly seems more likely than the mild-mannered Richard Tice to succeed in keeping the Reformation in the headlines.
And the better the reform, the more difficult it will be for conservatives. Furthermore, as Farage withdrew Brexit Party candidates from Tory-held seats in 2019, it will be the seats Sunak now defends where the damage will be greatest.
More difficult to assess is whether Farage will be able to win the Clacton seat he is now contesting and which he hopes will provide him with a parliamentary platform for the next five years. The constituency is one of the most pro-Brexit parts of the country – an estimated 72 percent voted to leave in 2016. Furthermore, it was the only seat that UKIP managed to win in the 2015 election, in what was a poor reward for getting 13 percent of the vote.
But Ukip’s 2015 standard-bearer, Douglas Carswell, had previously been the high-profile Conservative MP for the seat and had already successfully defended it under the Ukip banner in a by-election the previous year. Even in these difficult times for conservatives, it feels like a very safe place. We will have to see if Farage can overcome the odds.
John Curtice is professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde and senior fellow at the National Center for Social Research and “UK in a Changing Europe”. He also co-hosts the podcast ‘Trendy’
