Slowly but steadily this summer, Russian troops are advancing through Ukraine’s unarmed and unguarded forces. defenses in a relentless attack, leading the West to press for new weapons and strategies to strengthen Kiev.
This, in turn, brought new threats per President Vladimir Putin retaliate against the West – directly or indirectly.
Steps taken by the West to blunt the offensive and the Kremlin’s potential response could lead to a dangerous escalation as the war drags on into its third year – a year that further increases the danger of a direct confrontation between Russia and Russia. BORN.
Russia’s investigative offensive
Russia has used its firepower advantage amid delays in U.S. aid to step up attacks in several areas along the 1,000-kilometer (600-mile) front. Relatively small units are probing Ukrainian defenses for weak points, potentially setting the stage for a more ambitious push.
Russia’s offensive near Ukraine’s second-largest city, Kharkiv, which began in May and worried Kiev’s Western allies, apparently lost momentum after the Ukrainian army reinforced its forces in the area by redeploying troops from other sectors.
Meanwhile, Russia has made gradual but steady advances in the Donetsk region, including around the strategic hilltop town of Chasiv Yar, a gateway to parts of Donetsk still under Ukrainian control. Analysts say the fall of Chasiv Yar would threaten the main military centers of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.
Putin declared that Moscow was not looking for quick gains and would maintain the current strategy of moving forward slowly.
Jack Watling of the Royal United Services Institute said that by stretching Ukrainian forces across a broad front, Russia is overcoming the limitations of its armed forces, which lack the size and training for a major offensive.
The breadth of the attacks forced Ukraine to spread out its artillery, “wasting ammunition to put an end to successive Russian attacks,” he said in an analysis. “Russia’s goal is not to achieve a major breakthrough, but rather to convince Ukraine that it can maintain an inexorable advance, kilometer by kilometer, along the front.”
Michael Kofman of the Carnegie Endowment said Russia’s apparent goal is to keep up the pressure and try to build up Ukraine’s forces. He noted that although Ukraine managed to stabilize the front line, it had to use reserves intended to be deployed elsewhere.
“It’s going to take more and more time to really regenerate Ukraine’s combat strength because of this,” he said in a recent podcast.
Moscow has also stepped up airstrikes on Ukraine’s energy facilities and other vital infrastructure, with waves of missiles and drones. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the country lost about 80% of its thermal energy and a third of its hydropower in the strikes.
“This will be a growing problem when we talk about the future economic viability of Ukraine,” Kofman said.
Watling said the shortage of air defenses is giving Ukraine a difficult choice between focusing them on safeguarding critical infrastructure or protecting troops at the front.
“The persistence of Russia’s long-range strike campaign means that not only is the front being stretched laterally, but it is also being widened in depth,” he said.
The West responds, the Kremlin responds
Washington and some NATO allies responded to the offensive by allowing Kiev to use Western weapons for limited attacks inside Russia. The US has allowed Ukraine to use American weapons against military targets in Russia near Kharkiv and elsewhere near the border, but to Kiev’s dismay, Washington has so far not given permission for strikes deeper into Russia.
French President Emmanuel Macron and some other Western officials argue that Kiev has the right to use its equipment to attack military assets anywhere in Russia. There has also been talk by Macron and the leaders of NATO members in the Baltics – but not the US – about sending troops to Ukraine.
Putin warns this would be a major escalation and has threatened to retaliate by supplying weapons to Western adversaries in other parts of the world.
He reinforced this argument by signing a mutual defense pact with North Korea in June and keeping the door open to supplying weapons to Pyongyang.
He declared that just as the West says Ukraine can decide how to use Western weapons, Moscow could supply weapons to North Korea and “in the same way, we say we provide something to someone, but we have no control over what happens afterwards” – an apparent allusion to Pyongyang’s role as an arms trader.
Dmitry Medvedev, deputy head of Russia’s Security Council, noted that Moscow could arm anyone who considers the US and its allies to be its enemies, “regardless of their political beliefs and international recognition.”
Another escalation threat followed a Ukrainian attack with US-made ATACMS missiles that killed four people and injured more than 150 in Sevastopol on the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia illegally annexed in 2014. Russian Ministry of Defense warned could take unspecified action against U.S. drones over the Black Sea that provide intelligence to Ukraine.
The nuclear threat and Putin’s long game
Putin said it was wrong for NATO to assume that Russia will not use its nuclear arsenal, reaffirming that it will use “all means” if its sovereignty and territorial integrity are threatened.
He also warned that Moscow was mulling possible changes to its doctrine that specifies when to resort to nuclear weapons.
Highlighting this, Russia carried out military exercises with nuclear weapons on the battlefield involving Belarus. Last year, Moscow sent some of these weapons to Belarus to try to discourage Western military support for Ukraine.
A military defeat in Ukraine, Putin said, would be a mortal blow to the Russian state, and he promised to carry out his goals “to the end”.
He declared that for Russia to stop the fighting, Ukraine must withdraw its troops from the four regions that Moscow annexed in 2022, an idea that Kiev and its allies have rejected. He also said that Ukraine should abandon its attempt to join NATO.
Aggressive Russian commentators have criticized Putin for failing to respond forcefully to NATO, increasing support for Kiev and allowing the West to continually push back Russia’s red lines. Some have argued that if damage increases due to Ukrainian strikes deep inside Russia with long-range Western missiles, Moscow should target NATO assets.
Vasily Kashin, a Moscow-based defense analyst, noted that while Ukraine has already used Western weapons to inflict limited damage, Putin “will have to do something if there are cruise missile strikes deep inside Russian territory resulting in significant casualties.” ”.
Russia could respond by targeting Western drones or U.S. spy satellites, or also attacking assets of some NATO countries in overseas territories to minimize triggering an all-out conflict with the alliance, Kashin said.
Other Russian commentators argued, however, that such action, likely to trigger a direct conflict with NATO, is not in Moscow’s interests.
Moscow-based security analyst Sergei Poletaev said the Kremlin intends to constantly drain Ukrainian resources to force Kiev to accept a peace deal on Russia’s terms.
While nothing spectacular is happening on the front lines, he said, “constant declines wear away a stone.”
Moscow’s military advantage allows it to “maintain pressure along the entire front line and make further advances while waiting for Ukraine to collapse,” he said in a commentary.
Lacking resources for a major offensive, the Kremlin opted for slow advances, with the aim of “maintaining pressure on Ukraine and, at the same time, moving the West away from direct involvement in hostilities,” Poletaev said.
“We must walk the knife’s edge between our victory and nuclear war,” he said.
