Four things to watch as NATO leaders gather in the US capital for a high-stakes summit

When Washington, D.C., last time hosted a NATO summit in 1999, the alliance was celebrating a milestone. This was also facing a war in Europe It is welcome new members to the alliance.

So there will be a certain sense of déjà vu in D.C. when leaders of 32 nations meeting from July 9, 2024to discuss the state of the alliance as it turns 75 years old.

However, the scale of the challenges NATO faces today, both inside and outside the organization, surpasses what it faced when celebrating its 50th anniversary in 1999. war in Ukraine It has been going on for more than two years. NATO must also consider the rise of China and the challenges this brings to geopolitics. However, several members of the alliance also face political challenges at home It is consequential elections.

In particular, the upcoming US presidential elections are important for NATO. Republican candidate Donald Trump was quick to express their displeasure with the alliance. And close advisers suggest he is serious possibly trying to withdraw the US from NATO if he is elected president again.

Other issues on the NATO summit agenda include the development of a new southern flank strategy to address growing security challenges in the Middle East and North Africa and the introduction of a new Secretary-General, Mark Rutte.

But it is the following four topics that will likely dominate discussions in Washington from July 9 to 11. How the alliance approaches them will go some way to signaling the health of NATO as it turns 75 – and the future direction of the alliance.

1. Accession to Ukraine: a battle of semantics?

NATO expressed its support for the first time Ukraine’s accession to the alliance in 2008 but offered no timeline for moving forward. This state of limbo has continued to plague the alliance ever since. At the 2023 NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, the alliance didn’t seem to be in a big hurrystating: “We will be in a position to extend an invitation to Ukraine to join the alliance when allies agree and conditions are met.”

This vague wording led to a fierce and frustrated public backlash from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who denounced the language as “unprecedented and absurd.”

The Washington summit will once again be a delicate exercise in semantics. A formal invitation to join will not be on the table for Ukraine, as several countries still oppose such a move. The US and Germany in particular have stated that they first want to see more improvements by the government in Kyiv when it comes to fighting corruption and defending the rule of law.

The trick for NATO leaders will be to devise language in their official statement that can placate all parties. It would have to show some progress compared to last year, be well received by Kiev and still receive the support of all NATO member states. The Biden administration has talked about offering a “bridge to membership,” but other allies still waiting for a stronger language. They are pushing for words along the lines of outgoing NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg’s statement in April that Ukraine is in a “irreversible path.”

2. Support Ukraine: Protect aid from political winds

Since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Western states have provided significant military aid to Kiev. But the most recent shipments have faced significant delays – a result of opposition some European Union countries and in the same way of members of the US Congress. These delays have had damaging consequences on the battlefield for Ukraine as it tries to repel Russian momentum.

A key challenge for NATO will be how to institutionalize support for Ukraine while simultaneously protecting it from the prevailing political headwinds among member states.

As a first step, NATO should take over the coordination of security assistance and training for Ukraine. According to Stoltenberg, this merely reflects that “99 percent of military support already comes from NATO members.” But it also aims to improve the current process. In fact, the current country-by-country support system does not was always driven by efficiency or the needs of Kiev.

Furthermore, Stoltenberg is pushing for a multi-year financial commitment from all member states make aid to Ukraine more predictable.

But recent reports suggest this goal could end being diluted. Member States can commit to just $43 billion (€40 billion) for one year, as opposed making commitments for a longer period. The extent to which the summit can institutionalize aid to Ukraine will be a key test.

3. China and the Indo-Pacific: Globalizing security

A few days before the Washington summit, NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg wrote an article emphasizing that “security is not a regional issue, but a global one”. He also added that “Europe’s security affects Asia, and Asia’s security affects Europe”.

NATO increasingly views the European and Indo-Pacific theaters as interdependent, and this has been shaped by its growing concerns about China. It was only in 2019 that the alliance first formally discussed China as posing challenges and opportunities. Since then, NATO has adopted increasingly harsh language towards authorities in Beijing.

In particular, China’s support for Russia during the war in Ukraine greatly contributed to the worsening of relations with the West and drew NATO further into the Indo-Pacific. This week’s summit will include, for the third time in a row, the leaders of Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand – none of which are members of NATO.

NATO leaders see China as a challenge, but are much less clear about how to deal with it. Cooperation with NATO four partners Indo-Pacific remains limited. The alliance also appears uncertain about how much to focus on Asia as opposed to Europe. And the Member States do not agree with the severity of the threat posed by Beijing. Developing a clearer strategy towards China will be among the priorities of participants at the 2024 summit.

4. Designing unity: Cohesion in difficult times

The 75th anniversary summit is intended to be a celebration of NATO’s longevity and resilience. There will certainly be positive headlines to share, especially the fact that 23 Member States spend 2% of their gross domestic product on defense – a long-standing goal for NATO that relatively few countries achieved until recently. NATO has also managed to provide significant military aid to Ukraine since 2022.

But NATO is also a political alliance that faces major obstacles. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s “peace mission” to Moscow, a few days before the NATO summit, sparked significant anger among other EU member states. Although French voters chose not to bring the far-right National Rally to power – something that could have dramatically affected the country’s approach to NATO and Ukraine – the political landscape in NATO member states remains volatile.

And then, of course, there will be the US presidential elections in November. A Trump victory could mean four more troubled years for NATO.

With the Washington, D.C. meeting being seen as a moment to celebrate NATO’s longevity, the summit may well be judged by the degree to which Member States can continue to present a united front amid thorny issues and future uncertain policies for each Member State. .

This article was republished from The conversation, an independent, nonprofit news organization that brings you trusted facts and analysis to help you understand our complex world. It was written by: Garrett Martin, American University School of International Service

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Garret Martin receives funding from the European Union for the Transatlantic Policy Center, of which he is co-director.