Why did Ukraine launch an attack on Russia?

When Kiev launched a cross-border attack on the Russian Kursk region on the border with Ukraine, the question from some military experts was: “Why?”

One of the biggest problems on the Ukrainian battlefield is manpower. Russia has more troops and is approaching the city of Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine.

So sending hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers into Russia itself is, let’s say, counterintuitive in the eyes of some.

But not all.

“It was not accidental,” war expert Kostyantyn Mashovets said in a Facebook post. “It’s clearly part of a clear plan.”

Mykhaylo Zhyrokhov, a military analyst, agrees. He told the BBC that Russia had been forced to redeploy some frontline troops in eastern Ukraine.

“If you look at the official reports, there were significantly fewer Russian bombs dropped in the Donetsk area,” he said.

“This means that the aircraft carrying them are now elsewhere in Russia.”

It is extremely unlikely that this incursion is Ukraine trying to occupy Russian territory, but if attracting Russian forces was an objective, it is quickly being accomplished.

Recent history may also be playing a role. Russia has launched a major cross-border offensive of its own in Ukraine’s northeast Kharkiv region.

The advance appears to have slowed after the US gave Ukraine permission to use its missiles against targets inside Russia.

Ukrainian fears of a similar attack in the northern Sumy region have grown over the following three months.

Given ongoing Western concerns about the escalation of the war, it is likely that some sort of permission would have been granted for an operation of this scale on Russian soil.

In general, very few senior figures in Ukraine speak much about this attack.

The president’s office told us, “No comment yet.”

Although similar raids have happened before, this is the first time that regular Ukrainian forces have been used in this way.

Where there is a lot more talk is on the other side of the border.

Russian military channels were quick to report the attack involving hundreds of soldiers and multiple rocket and drone attacks.

Local authorities were also quick to announce casualties and evacuations. Neighboring regions have expressed their willingness to accept people forced to abandon their homes.

A state of emergency was also declared there.

The Russian Defense Ministry even admitted that troops were being redeployed in the direction of Sudzha, a city in the Kursk region.

At the top of the food chain was Vladimir Putin being publicly briefed by his security chiefs. The Itamaraty spokesperson classified the attack as “barbaric” and “terrorist”.

It was a Russian response that suggested it had been taken by surprise in a war of recent familiarity.

Until yesterday, Russia had been steadily capturing territory, outnumbering Ukrainian forces.

Now there’s something else to think about.

The attack is already being presented by the Kremlin as proof of why it should continue to wage its war – an invasion that it still classifies as “defensive”.

“There are more questions than answers about the events in the Kursk region,” suggests military analyst Mykhaylo Zhyrokhov.

It is clear that for Ukraine, if it stagnates or even prevents Russia from organizing a major attack in its north, it will see that this operation is worth it.

“The more pressure is exerted on the aggressor who brought war to Ukraine,” said President Zelensky in his evening speech, “the closer the peace will be.”

“Only peace through righteous strength.”

More about this story