National targets amount to more than doubling global wind capacity from 2022 to 2030, but falling short of tripling, according to analysis by energy think tank Ember.
The sum of 2030 national wind targets from 70 countries and the EU is 2.15 TW, a 2.4-fold increase from the 901 GW of cumulative global installed capacity in 2022.
This leaves a gap of 585 GW to achieve a global tripling of wind power, which would equate to 2.74 TW.
If this level is reached, wind will generate almost a fifth (19%) of global electricity supply.
Ember cited forecasts from the International Energy Agency (IEA), BloombergNEF and the Global Wind Energy Council, which agree that global wind capacity in 2030 will reach about 2.1TW, similar to the current sum of national targets.
The main driver will be China, as the country is expected to install more than 50% of global wind additions between 2024 and 2030.
Ember said China is exceeding its target and will likely nearly triple wind capacity from 2022 to 2030, marking a compound annual growth rate of 10% through 2035, according to energy technologyparent company Global Data.
O AIEThe company’s Renewable Energy Progress Tracker shows that of the 70 countries with wind targets (including more subjective “implicit” targets), almost two-thirds are expected to fall short of their national targets for 2030. Ember highlighted that these countries are collectively aiming for well below tripling the required wind capacity, with the biggest gaps in the US, India and the EU.
In contrast, Brazil and Turkey’s recent and forecast wind additions are greater than necessary to meet their 2030 wind targets. However, Ember identified this overshoot as a result of both countries having low targets: 217 GW for Brazil and 91 GW for Turkey.
According to AIEAccording to the company’s Net Zero Roadmap, wind power could provide almost as much generation as solar by 2030, despite currently having less than half its capacity.
While a recent update to the Roadmap showed increasing growth trajectories in solar, Ember said solar is unlikely to make up for deficiencies in wind generation if wind does not grow at an adequate rate.
Ember global electricity analyst Katye Altieri commented: “Governments lack ambition for wind energy, especially onshore wind. Amid the solar energy hype, wind is not getting enough attention even though it provides cheap electricity and complements solar energy.”
Global Wind Energy Council CEO Ben Backwell added: “Action must be taken on licensing, financing and supply chains – areas where action will deliver multiple benefits that bridge the gap between action and delivery.”
The COP28 climate change conference, held in Dubai in December 2023, saw an agreement between participating countries to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030. COP29 could make further progress on wind energy, as signaled by an event pre-conference organized in July by the Government of Azerbaijan. and the wind energy association WindEurope.
However, the International Renewable Energy Agency recently reported that the world will not be able to meet the 2030 target if capacity continues to grow at the current slow rate.
“Global wind capacity will double by 2030, national targets fail to triple” was originally created and published by energy technologya brand owned by GlobalData.
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