How 1,000 Ukrainian troops entered 30km into Russia, what do they plan next

Ukrainian ground troops and mechanized forces crossed the international border, advancing more than 30 kilometers into Russian territory, in one of the most significant developments in the ongoing war between the two countries. Ukrainian troops, estimated to number more than 1,000, moved from the Sumy Oblast region in northeastern Ukraine and took over Kursk Oblast in Russia.

Ukraine’s incursion caught Russia off guard, which is now mobilizing troops to stop the advance. Kiev has conducted intense artillery and drone strikes, along with the movement of mechanized troops into enemy territory.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a non-profit organization, geographically located Ukrainian troop positions through open source videos and images of the operation and marked the territories that witnessed the Ukrainian advance. The blue region indicates the areas where Ukrainians entered.

Russia gathered its troops to prevent the new Ukrainian incursion. The objective of the Ukrainian operation is unclear, but since the start of the war in February 2022, the Kiev operation appears to be the biggest challenge Putin’s Russia has faced.

Ukraine has been largely silent about the offensive. However, Russia announced a “federal emergency” and sent troops to defend the area.

Geolocation of the Ukrainian advance

The ISW said the advance of Ukrainian mechanized troops made up of tanks, infantry and armored vehicles nearly 35 km into Russia was “rapid”, but the ISW said it did not appear that the Ukrainians certainly “do not control this area”.

Russian conscripts, FSB border guards and elements of the Chechen “Akhmat” units, a motorized unit operating in the Chechen Republic and fighting for Russia, are operating in the Kursk region and building field fortifications along the border. They were violated by Ukrainian troops. Based on information accessed by ISW, as of August 8, Ukrainian troops were located in Sverdlikovo, Sudhza, Malaya and Lyubimovka.

Vladimir Putin called the incursion a “large-scale provocation” by Kiev, and Russia’s top general vowed to crush it. Meanwhile, an officer from Akhmat’s Chechen unit said: “The situation is not irreversible. Nothing supernatural happened, yes, our people died, that’s a fact. The enemy entered several settlements,” said General Apti Alaudinov, a close ally of Chechen dictator Ramzan. Kadyrov and commander of Akhmat’s special forces.

Russian military bloggers claim that Ukrainian troops are advancing in small units from Russia’s rear and bypassing its fortifications before engaging Russian forces and then withdrawing from the fighting without trying to consolidate control over their more distant advances.

Russia’s new front line is far from other areas where heavy fighting has occurred since the start of the war. There has been significant fighting in eastern Ukraine, a large part of which is said to be under Russian control. In the east, Donetsk, Luhansk and Horlivka were under Russian control before the war began two years ago. Russian troops have advanced further west from these regions and control a front line running from northeast to south Ukraine.

According to the ISW map, the red line indicates the Russian advance into Ukraine and the black dotted lines towards Russian control of Ukrainian territory before the start of the war.

Ukrainian drones attacked residential buildings in the border regions of Kursk, Voronezh and Belgorod. Fighters from Ukraine have made several brief incursions into Russia since the conflict began in February 2022.

Russia shuffles troops

Russian military experts criticized authorities for failing to detect the incursions. The Ukrainian offensive entered its third day. Russia initially called in air and artillery units to repel the attacks, but was unable to stop the advance.

The Russian Defense Ministry said it is sending columns of military equipment including rocket launchers, artillery, tanks and heavy trucks to reinforce its defenses in the area.

Russia carried out artillery attacks on a supermarket in Kostyantynivka in eastern Ukraine. The attack is Russia’s response to the Ukrainian advance. The bombing killed ten people and injured 35. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky promised revenge for the attack.

“Russia will be held accountable for this terror and we will do our best to ensure that the world continues to support Ukraine in supporting our defense and saving the lives of our people,” Zelensky said on X.

Kostyantynivka, Donetsk region. Russian terrorists attacked an ordinary supermarket and a post office. There are people under the rubble. A rescue operation is underway and everything will be done to save them.

At the moment, it is known that four people were killed. My… pic.twitter.com/Sd9vrGTHTc

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) August 9, 2024

Kostyantynivka has witnessed attacks in the past and Russian bombings are a common occurrence.

Raid to gain advantage?

Kharkiv, Ukraine, has been a major flashpoint between troops and has witnessed intense battles in the past. In May, Russia launched a new offensive in the region, seizing significant territory in Kharkiv. The attacks led Russia to drop 1,000 kg guided bombs on a hardware store, in which 16 people died.

Last year, Ukrainian troops launched a major counteroffensive to recapture Kharkiv, which almost reached the Russian border. Kharkiv has been occupied by Russia since the start of the war on February 24, 2022.

The Russian-controlled territory is very close to the international border and several kilometers north of the city of Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second largest city. Ukraine’s ongoing incursion into Kursk could be a way to gain leverage at the negotiating table for a truce in areas, forcing the enemy to withdraw troops from other areas to reinforce the front line. The Ukrainian objective remains unclear.

US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said Washington was “reaching out to our Ukrainian counterparts to get a little better understanding.” He added that “nothing has changed in our policy” and Ukraine can only use US-supplied weapons “to attack imminent threats across the border.”

US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said of the Kremlin: “It’s a little rich, they call it a provocation, given that Russia has violated the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine.”