Russia struggles to repel deep Ukrainian incursion into Kursk

Ukrainian troops remained in Russia’s western Kursk region on Friday night as their surprise cross-border offensive into Russia reached the end of its fourth day.

The Russian Defense Ministry said it “continued to push back” the Ukrainian military, which it claimed had lost more than 280 troops in the past 24 hours – a number that has not been independently verified.

Reports suggest that Ukrainian troops are operating more than 10 km (six miles) inside Russia – Kiev’s deepest cross-border advance since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Ukraine has not openly admitted to the incursion, but President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Thursday that Moscow must “feel” the consequences of its invasion.

Fighting in Kursk gradually moved closer to a nuclear power plant on Friday, prompting the UN nuclear agency to release a statement calling on both sides to “exercise maximum restraint”.

The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Grossi, called on all parties to take measures “to avoid a nuclear accident with the potential for serious radiological consequences”.

Some residents of the Kursk region were evacuated by authorities, with a group arriving at Moscow’s central railway station on Friday. An unidentified resident told AFP news agency: “It’s terrible. They are bombing.”

During the night, the Ukrainian military said it struck a military airfield deep inside Russia, destroying a warehouse containing hundreds of glide bombs.

The attack on the Lipetsk air base, more than 350 kilometers from the border with Ukraine, is the type of operation that Kiev has been wanting to carry out for some time.

The weaponry it managed to destroy in the attack is the same type that Russia used to terrorize Ukrainian towns, cities and military positions during most of its invasion.

The military’s statement also said the airfield was known to be home to Russia’s Su-34, Su-35 and MiG-31 warplanes.

Nearby Russian authorities said there was a state of emergency in the area, confirming what they described as “detonations” at an “energy infrastructure facility.” Residents of four nearby villages were being evacuated.

Hours after Ukraine’s attacks, Russia responded by attacking a shopping center in the Ukrainian town of Kostyantynivka, near the front line in the eastern region of Donetsk, killing at least 14 people and wounding 43, Ukrainian officials say.

Residential buildings, stores and more than a dozen cars were also damaged in the attack.

Shortly after the launch of Ukraine’s offensive on Tuesday, the Russian Defense Ministry said its forces were managing to suppress “attack attempts by enemy units.”

But a video verified by BBC Verify shows a different picture, with a 15-vehicle Russian convoy damaged, burned and abandoned on a road through the town of Oktyabr’skoe, about 38 kilometers (24 miles) from the border on the Russian side.

The morning images also show Russian soldiers, some injured, possibly dead among the vehicles.

A “federal state of emergency” has been declared in the Kursk region – a measure that underlines the seriousness of the current situation.

Russia said around 1,000 Ukrainian soldiers, supported by tanks and armored vehicles, entered the Kursk region when the offensive began.

Despite sending reserve troops and evacuation orders, Russia was unable to slow the momentum of this Ukrainian advance.

This is more than the probing attacks we’ve seen in the past.

It is a committed attack that has shocked the Russian military and the Kremlin. Over the last 18 months, Moscow has been dictating the dynamics of this war.

Now it is necessary to contain this attack, as well as the internal criticism for not having prevented it in the first place.

Despite long-standing Western concerns about escalation, the consensus among Ukraine’s allies is that this operation falls within its right to defend itself.

Although he has not yet directly referenced the attack, President Zelensky said in a video address on Thursday night: “Russia brought war to our land and should feel what she did.”

But with his Ukrainian forces still outnumbered by their Russians on the battlefield, the line between masterstroke and miscalculation is thin.

The Russian ruble fell 2.5% against the dollar on Friday, with traders telling the AFP news agency that the Ukrainian offensive on Kursk was one of the reasons behind the drop.