Xi arrives in Hungary as EU security divide deepens

Semafor signals

Supported by

Insights from the Central European Institute of Asian Studies, Növekedés and Royal United Services Institute

The news

Chinese leader Xi Jinping arrived in Budapest on Wednesday, the last stop of his week-long visit to Europe, which many experts consider a strategic move to deepen ideological divisions in the European Union.

Xi’s first stop in France met with some resistance from French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen, who pressed him on the China situation. cheap green technology and its effect on European competition. The pair also grilled Xi about Beijing’s continued support for Russia in the war in Ukraine. But experts agree that the invitation to France signals that the EU is not prepared to completely cut ties with Beijing.

Xi could be a little more forward during his stops in Serbia and Hungary – both are NATO-skeptical countries and favor stronger ties with China. Showing support for Eastern Europe could further divide the fragile bloc in terms of security and economic policy – ​​to Beijing’s (and Russia’s) benefit.

SIGNALS

Hungarians’ views on China are complicated

Sources: Central European Institute of Asian Studies, Növekedés, Századvég, Telex

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán remains China’s main ally in the EU, but his people have more differentiated opinions. A 2020 study found that the majority of Hungarians — including Orbán’s supporters — had a bad view of China, especially in light of the way the country is dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic. But a more recent 2021 study found that negative sentiment is waning as China invests in Hungary’s economy. A 2023 study by the conservative think tank Századvég found 79% of Hungarians oppose further trade restrictions with China, but 50% of Hungarians are also opposition to Chinese EV battery factories being built there for environmental reasons, according to news site Telex, show that affection isn’t entirely limitless.

Xi’s visit to NATO-skeptical country could further divide the EU

Sources: Politika, Royal United Services Institute

In an op-ed in a Serbian newspaper, Xi said Serbia and China were “forged with blood”After the 1995 NATO bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade, which killed three journalists. The fact that Xi immediately attacked NATO after his most optimistic visit to France is “I like playing Jekyll and Hyde,” wrote Sari Arho Havrén, a China watcher at the security think tank RUSI. But Xi cannot play both NATO-friendly and anti-NATO roles, she argued. As Xi reveals his true anti-NATO colors in Serbia and Hungary, her visit to Paris may ultimately do little to influence the EU’s overall security stance and bring it closer to the US, she argued. But that may be Xi’s goal: forcing a wedge in the EU between NATO-friendly Western countries and NATO-skeptics in the east, wrote the Financial Times.

Beijing exerts a frightening influence on press freedom in Hungary

Sources: Xinhua, Semafor, Reporter without Borders

Before Xi’s arrival in Budapest, China’s state news agency Xinhua and Hungary’s economy ministry reached an agreement for Xinhua to “continue to collaborate with Hungarian media”to promote the countries’ bilateral ties. The deal is the latest in Beijing’s long-running influence campaign in Hungary. Earlier this year, Budapest announced that Chinese police officers would patrol Hungarian cities with many Chinese expatriates and tourists – potentially chilling any opposition activity. Meanwhile, press freedom in Hungary has deteriorated since Orbán’s rise to power, while propaganda has proliferated: Hungary recently passed a law requiring foreign-funded media outlets to publicize and register as foreign agentsmirroring Russia’s restrictive laws on social communications.