VILNIUS, Lithuania (AP) — Lithuania holds presidential elections on Sunday, at a time when Russian gains on the battlefield in Ukraine are supplying biggest fears across Europe about Moscow’s intentions, but particularly in the strategically important Baltic region.
The popular incumbent, Gitanas Nauseda, is the favorite to win another five-year term. But there are eight candidates in total, making it unlikely that he or any other candidate will be able to get the 50% of votes needed to win on Sunday. In this case, a second round would be held two weeks later, on May 26.
The president’s main tasks in Lithuania’s political system are to oversee foreign and security policy and act as supreme commander of the armed forces. These duties and the nation’s strategic location alongside NATO eastern flank amidst a greater geopolitical impasse between Russia and the West add weight to the paper despite Lithuania’s relatively small size.
There is great concern in Lithuania, and neighboring Latvia and Estonia, regarding the Russia is gaining momentum in Ukraine. All three Baltic states declared independence after the collapse of the Soviet Union and set a determined course westward, joining the European Union and NATO.
Nausėda, a moderate conservative who turns 60 a week after Sunday’s election day, has been a strong supporter of Ukraine, a position shared across most of the political spectrum. During his tenure, Lithuania also gave refuge to many who fled a authoritarian repression in neighboring Belarus and increased repression in Russia.
Nausėda, a former banker who entered politics with his successful 2019 presidential campaign, is seen as the “safe choice for voters of almost all ideological persuasions,” said Tomas Janeliūnas, an analyst at the Institute of International Relations and Political Science from Vilnius University.
Polls show that his main opponents are Ignas Vėgėlė, a populist lawyer, who is in second place according to recent opinion polls, and Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė, who is in third place in the polls.
Not all voters consider Nausėda the safest option.
Asta Valanciene, a teacher from Vilnius, said she would vote for Šimonytė due to the prime minister’s longer experience in politics than newcomer Nausėda.
“I would rather give her a chance than witness five more years of this random guy in office. I simply trust the professionals,” said Valanciene.
A former finance minister, Šimonytė became prime minister in 2020 after a failed presidential campaign in 2019, with Nausėda winning the election with 66% of the vote in the second round.
Vėgėlė gained popularity among some Lithuanians during the COVID-19 pandemic by sharply criticizing the current government’s lockdown and vaccination policies.
A second-place victory for Vėgėlė could propel him to a prominent role in national politics ahead of Lithuania’s parliamentary elections this fall – and would be a blow to the prime minister, said Rima Urbonaitė, a political analyst at Mykolas Romeris University in Vilnius .
“For first place everything is almost clear, but it is difficult to say who else would go through to the second round. Nausėda’s chances of re-election are high. However, this time, second place becomes very significant,” said Urbonaitė.
While both Nausėda and Šimonytė are strong supporters of greater military spending and strong supporters of Kiev, several other candidates consider aid to Ukraine an invitation to Russia to invade Lithuania.
Vėgėlė’s comments on the issue of aid to Ukraine have at times been vague, and he has mocked those who advocate increasing defense spending to 4% of gross domestic product, double the NATO target.
A referendum is also up for vote on Sunday. It asks whether the constitution should be changed to allow dual citizenship for hundreds of thousands of Lithuanians living abroad.
Lithuanian citizens who adopt another nationality currently have to renounce their Lithuanian citizenship, creating vulnerabilities for a nation whose population has fallen from 3.5 million in 1990 to 2.8 million today.
If approved, parliament could amend the 1992 Constitution so that people who acquired Lithuanian citizenship by birth could retain it if they acquired citizenship from another country “friendly to Lithuania”.
A similar attempt to change the fundamental law failed in 2019 because turnout was lower than the required 50% of registered voters to be valid.
