KHARKIV REGION, Ukraine (AP) — From heaven, the Ukrainian drone unit commander had a panoramic view Russia’s renewed offensive taking place in the war-torn northeast of the country.
Enemy forces have captured a number of Ukrainian villages in recent days after opening a new front along the border with Russia’s Belgorod region. In the village of Strilecha, long depopulated due to its proximity to the border, a Russian infantry unit arrived with ease, a drone operator said.
“I saw that the infantry just entered the village,” said Borchik. “There were a lot of them.” Members of the unit spoke on the condition that only their callsigns would be used in accordance with Ukrainian military protocols.
In many other places this week, Russian troops fought intense battles with Ukrainian soldiers.
Russia’s ground offensive has opened a new front and put more pressure on Ukraine’s overstretched forces, which are using bomb-laden drones to destroy military vehicles. The Associated Press gained access to a position on the front lines overwhelmed with Ukrainian drone operators and saw a soldier destroy a Russian vehicle from a distance with a remote-controlled aircraft.
Despite these blows against Russia, Ukraine is entering what is expected to be the most difficult two-month period since the start of the war.
“This is just the beginning,” said Manul, the call sign for the Ukrainian drone operator. The AP team was allowed to spend some time with the drone unit on the condition that its exact location not be revealed.
A RARE LOOK
Analysts paint a grim picture. By reducing Ukrainian forces ahead of an expected summer offensive, Russia increases the chances of a breakthrough, even if Western supplies are delivered in full.
Precious reserves were intended to halt Russia’s advance elsewhere along the 1,000-kilometer (620-mile) front line, but were rotated to stabilize the new front and limit Moscow’s advance. Now Ukrainian soldiers are worried that Russia will open more fighting along its border with Ukraine to shore up limited manpower and exploit the window of time before promised Western military aid arrives.
Meanwhile, Manul’s unit monitors a highway in the Kharkiv region 24 hours a day and sends drones to destroy military vehicles intended to reinforce the Russian advance along the border.
The pressure on Kharkiv forces Ukraine to mobilize troops to defend its second-largest city, “and given the size of the group of Russian forces in the area, this will attract reserves of critical materiel, from air defenses to artillery,” Jack wrote. Watling, RUSI Senior Researcher for Land Warfare.
THE FRONT LINE
Russia can then exert pressure on other areas of the front line, including the mostly static southern front in the Zaporizhzhia region. Once Ukraine commits reserves in these directions, Russia could move further toward Donetsk and Luhansk, Watling wrote.
The capture of Donestsk and Luhansk is Moscow’s declared objective. Russia’s operation, which saw village after village fall under Moscow’s control, is the most significant border incursion since the full-scale invasion. Russian troops faced little resistance.
“Today I saw that the (Russian) infantry just entered the village,” said Borchik, a drone operator with the ACHILLES battalion of the 92nd brigade.
The signs of an imminent offensive were clear, Ukrainian soldiers said. A large buildup of Russian troops, including newly formed groups, near the border signaled that a new attack was imminent.
At the same time, improved Russian intelligence gathering has managed to exploit another enduring Ukrainian disadvantage: personnel shortages.
LACK OF STAFF
When the time came to launch the offensive, Moscow knew that Ukrainian forces would be desperately scattered and would have to rotate in units fighting heavy battles in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, known as Donbass.
“We lack infantry. Few people mobilize,” said Borchik. “We are running out of people and teams need to be replenished.”
“Plus, the Russians have information. I don’t know how, but it’s leaking when one brigade leaves and another comes in. And at that moment the Russians invade,” he said.
This is how Russian forces captured the settlement of Ocheretyne in Donetsk last month. Moscow’s troops took advantage of the moment between the departure of one brigade and the entry of another, when the line is at its weakest.
With 50,000-70,000 troops massed in the direction of Belgorod, far from enough to take the Kharkiv region, it is clear to Ukrainian commanders that the operation seeks to divert their forces from other parts of the front line.
“This will significantly complicate things,” he said.
On the night they arrived, the unit destroyed many light military vehicles and trucks traveling along the highway. The following night there was less, a sign that the Russians were alerted to the presence of a drone unit within firing range.
“We burned their equipment, so they’re driving less now. Maybe they found another way,” he said.
ANOTHER PATH
Borchik is now waiting to see what countermeasures the Russians will implement to evade their drones.
Moscow gained the upper hand by using electronic warfare to neutralize Ukrainian vessels.
“I think they will use radio-electronic warfare here… so that we fly less,” he said. “And they will look for ways to extract even more reserves.”
Russian troops are deploying new frequencies to evade Ukrainian blockers, while also finding other ways to drown out Ukrainian drone frequencies. Recently, Russian troops unveiled tanks equipped with a shell-like contraption, apparently to protect them from suicide drone attacks.
“Destroying this type of equipment is much more difficult,” Borchik said.
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Associated Press journalist Volodymyr Yurchuk contributed to this report.
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