Taipei, Taiwan — A campaign ad for Taiwan’s president-elect Lai Ching-te showed incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen driving with Lai in the passenger seat, exchanging reflections on their years governing together. Tsai later handed over leadership to Lai, who was joined by her running mate Bi-khim Hsiao.
The message was clear: Lai would lead the island in the direction set by Tsai, who after eight years in power was prohibited from running again.
Lai, 64, will take office on Monday. Carrying on Tsai’s legacy means trying to strike a balance between cultivating Taiwan’s unofficial alliance with the United States and maintaining peace with China, which claims Taiwan as its own territory, to be retaken by force if necessary.
Lai is also expected to build on some of Tsai’s domestic reforms, despite the political deadlock. Lai and Tsai’s Democratic Progressive Party has lost its majority in the legislature, making it difficult for Lai to push through legislation, including approval of crucial national defense budgets.
Tsai, 67, was Taiwan’s first female president and one of the few female leaders in Asia who do not come from a political dynasty. Her legacy will be tied to defending the island’s sovereignty against China while reshaping it as a credible partner for the United States and other democracies. She will also be remembered for overseeing the legalization of same-sex marriage, guiding Taiwan through the COVID years, and pushing for the island’s military modernization.
He leaves office with high approval ratings. A recent survey by broadcaster TVBS showed that 42% of respondents were satisfied with its eight-year performance. His predecessor, Ma Ying-jeou, left office with approval ratings of around 23%.
Tsai’s popularity partly reflects a shift in Taiwan’s identity. A large majority of residents now identify as Taiwanese rather than Chinese and want to be governed separately from Beijing. Taiwan and China have had different governments since a civil war in 1949 saw nationalists flee to the island as the Chinese Communist Party took control of the mainland.
Tsai deviated from the more pro-China policies of the previous ruling party, the Kuomintang. By the end of Ma’s term, frequent exchanges with Beijing were making many Taiwanese nervous, said Shelley Rigger, a Taiwan expert at Davidson College.
Beijing branded Tsai a separatist after she refused to recognize the 1992 Consensus, an agreement that says Taiwan is part of “One China.” However, by moving away from Beijing, Tsai left an open door for communication.
“President Tsai has always said that Taiwan, under her leadership, is happy, willing and eager to engage with Beijing, but not on terms unilaterally imposed by Beijing,” said Wen-Ti Sung, a fellow at the Atlantic think tank. in Washington. Council.
China has not only refused to talk to Tsai, but has also increased military and economic pressure on the island, sending warships and military aircraft near it daily.
Beijing prevents countries with which it has diplomatic relations from having formal ties with Taipei. During Tsai’s tenure, she intensified a campaign to alienate the island’s few diplomatic partners. During Tsai’s years in office, China poached nearly half of Taiwan’s diplomatic allies, bringing the remaining number to 12.
Tsai pushed back by diversifying trade relationships and increasing military spending, including submarine development. He also elevated Taiwan’s standing on the international stage, said outgoing Foreign Minister Joseph Wu.
“His leadership style is very moderate, but at the same time very firm when it comes to facing any type of international pressure,” he said.
“She strengthened awareness of Taiwan around the world and its ties to the international community,” said Bonnie Glaser, director of the Indo-Pacific program at the US German Marshall Fund.
Lai, who served as vice president during Tsai’s second term, came across as more of a firebrand early in his career. In 2017, he described himself as a “pragmatic worker for Taiwan independence,” prompting a rebuke from Beijing. He has since softened his stance and now supports maintaining the status quo across the Taiwan Strait and the possibility of talks with Beijing.
“Lai has spent the last two years trying to convince the world that he is Tsai Ing-wen 2.0,” said Lev Nachman, an assistant professor at National Chengchi University.
Lai will build on Tsai’s efforts to strengthen ties with the United States, which does not formally recognize Taiwan as a country but is obligated by its own laws to provide the island with the means to defend itself.
By some measures, Lai’s biggest uncertainty on the foreign policy front could come from Washington. A new Donald Trump administration could upset any balance Tsai has achieved in Taipei’s relations with Washington and Beijing, Nachman said.
Under Tsai, Taiwan became the first society in Asia to legalize same-sex marriage, although critics say she shirked political responsibility by leaving the decision to the Supreme Court and a series of referendums. .
He oversaw a controversial labor and pension reform and extended the length of mandatory military service to one year. He also pushed a military modernization campaign, including a program to build indigenous submarines worth more than $16 billion each.
Tsai’s leadership during the COVID pandemic divided public opinion, with most admiring Taiwan’s initial ability to keep the virus largely outside its borders but criticizing the lack of investment in rapid testing as the pandemic progressed. .
Tsai’s mixed success on the domestic policy front contributed to the DPP’s historically poor results in local elections, said the Atlantic Council’s Sung. The party’s poor performance in the 2022 elections led Tsai to resign as party president. And while Lai won the presidential election, the PDP lost its majority in the legislature.
“Much of the success of President Tsai’s government comes from foreign policy and related international outreach fronts, and in terms of progress at the much more popular level of the party machine, for example, there is still room for improvement.” Sung said.
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